France and Spain, regarded as the two leading contenders for the 2026 World Cup title, will meet in a highly anticipated semi-final at Dallas Stadium on Tuesday.

According to the latest Opta supercomputer projections, France remains the favourites to lift the trophy with a 34.6% chance of becoming champions. However, their route to the final requires them to overcome Spain, who are considered their closest challengers, with a 23.8 percent probability. The winner will face either England or Argentina in the decisive match.

France entered the semi-final after securing a sixth consecutive victory at the tournament, defeating Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-finals. A seventh straight win would see them join Italy as only the second European nation to achieve such a run at a World Cup, following Italy’s success in the 1934 and 1938 editions.

The match will mark France’s eighth appearance in a World Cup semi-final, a figure bettered only by Germany with 12. Les Bleus lost their first three semi-finals in 1958, 1982, and 1986 but have reached the final in all four of their latest appearances at this stage — in 1998, 2006, 2018, and 2022. Their last three semi-final victories were all achieved without conceding a goal.

France chase another historic achievement with Mbappé leading the attack

France has the chance to match the remarkable record achieved by Germany between 1982 and 1990 and Brazil from 1994 to 2002 by reaching three successive World Cup finals.

A major part of their hopes rests on Kylian Mbappé, who has once again delivered a spectacular tournament. The forward was forced off with an ankle problem during the win over Morocco, but he is expected to be available for the meeting with Spain.

Mbappé has scored eight goals in North America, putting him level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race. His performances have helped France reach the last four, while his World Cup knockout-stage record has reached 12 goals — the highest total recorded by any player.

Despite scoring in every other knockout round, including the round of 32, round of 16, quarter-finals, and finals, Mbappé has yet to score in either of his previous semi-final appearances.

The France star has also played a key role in creating chances, particularly through his connection with Ousmane Dembélé. The pair have combined to create 19 opportunities for each other, with Mbappé setting up 10 chances for Dembélé and Dembélé returning the favour nine times.

Only three partnerships since 1966 have produced more than 20 created chances for one another at World Cups: Franz Beckenbauer and Wolfgang Overath, Rivaldo and Ronaldo, and Ángel Di María and Lionel Messi.

Last 5 France matches stats

✅    Serie A players called up for   🇫🇷    the France National team World Cup Squad:

• AC Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan
•  AS Roma midfielder Manu Kone
• AC Milan midfielder Adrien Rabiot
• Inter forward Marcus Thuram

Spain rely on defensive strength and remarkable consistency

Spain has built their tournament campaign around defensive organisation, allowing only one goal so far. Charles De Ketelaere’s header in their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium remains the only time La Roja have been breached.

Their place in the semi-finals was secured in dramatic fashion when substitute Mikel Merino scored a late winner against Portugal in the last 16 and repeated the achievement against Belgium. He became the first player in World Cup history to score winning goals in two knockout matches as a substitute.

Spain’s defensive reliability has extended beyond this tournament. Since the start of the 2018 World Cup, they have suffered only one defeat in 27 matches at major competitions, recording 16 wins and 10 draws. They have remained unbeaten in their last 14 games since losing 2-1 to Japan at the 2022 World Cup, conceding only five goals and keeping nine clean sheets.

The impressive run has taken Spain to only their second-ever World Cup semi-final. Their previous appearance came in 2010, when they went on to win the competition. Across seven semi-final appearances at major tournaments, their only elimination came against Italy at Euro 2020 after a 1-1 draw and a penalty shootout defeat.

A victory over France would give Spain a record-breaking achievement, as they would become the first European team to win eight consecutive knockout matches at major tournaments. That would surpass Italy’s seven-match run from 1934 to 1938 and Spain’s own seven straight knockout victories between 2008 and 2012.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Previous meetings, injuries and key battles before the semi-final

Neither team will have players suspended for the match, although France must carefully monitor the fitness of William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Aurélien Tchouaméni. The midfielder has missed France’s previous two games due to a muscle problem.

Spain could receive a boost from Nico Williams, who is hoping to feature after recovering from a thigh injury. Yéremy Pino is also pushing for a return after suffering a shoulder issue against Uruguay.

The upcoming clash will be only the second World Cup meeting between France and Spain. Their previous encounter came in the 2006 round of 16, when Spain took the lead before France completed a comeback with two goals in the final 10 minutes to win 3-1.

However, recent history favours Spain, who have lost just twice in their last 10 meetings with France across all competitions, winning seven and drawing one. La Roja have also won their previous two encounters, including a 2-1 victory in the Euro 2024 semi-finals and a dramatic 5-4 Nations League final-four triumph in June last year.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

France goes into this semi-final as slight favourites thanks to their remarkable World Cup consistency, attacking depth, and experience in the later stages of major tournaments. Didier Deschamps’ side have shown the ability to win under pressure, while Kylian Mbappé’s outstanding form and his partnership with Ousmane Dembélé give them a major threat in the final third. Spain, however, arrive with huge confidence after producing one of the most disciplined defensive displays of the tournament and conceding just once so far. Luis de la Fuente’s team has combined technical quality with defensive stability, and their recent success against France proves they are capable of matching the tournament favourites. The match is expected to be a tactical battle between France’s explosive attacking transitions and Spain’s possession-based approach, with both teams likely to be cautious in the early stages. France may have a slight advantage due to their individual quality and knockout experience, but Spain’s organisation and confidence make this one of the closest semi-finals possible.

Prediction: France 2-1 Spain

Expected outcome: A narrow France victory in a high-level encounter where both sides create chances but defensive discipline plays a key role. Spain is unlikely to allow many opportunities and could push the match into extra time, yet Mbappé and France’s attacking talent may provide the decisive moment. A draw after 90 minutes would not be a surprise, as both teams have shown they can control games against elite opponents.