France and Spain, regarded as the two leading contenders for the 2026 World Cup title, will meet in a highly anticipated semi-final at Dallas Stadium on Tuesday.

According to the latest Opta supercomputer projections, France remains the favourites to lift the trophy with a 34.6% chance of becoming champions. However, their route to the final requires them to overcome Spain, who are considered their closest challengers, with a 23.8 percent probability. The winner will face either England or Argentina in the decisive match.

France entered the semi-final after securing a sixth consecutive victory at the tournament, defeating Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-finals. A seventh straight win would see them join Italy as only the second European nation to achieve such a run at a World Cup, following Italy’s success in the 1934 and 1938 editions.

The match will mark France’s eighth appearance in a World Cup semi-final, a figure bettered only by Germany with 12. Les Bleus lost their first three semi-finals in 1958, 1982, and 1986 but have reached the final in all four of their latest appearances at this stage — in 1998, 2006, 2018, and 2022. Their last three semi-final victories were all achieved without conceding a goal.

France chase another historic achievement with Mbappé leading the attack

France has the chance to match the remarkable record achieved by Germany between 1982 and 1990 and Brazil from 1994 to 2002 by reaching three successive World Cup finals.

A major part of their hopes rests on Kylian Mbappé, who has once again delivered a spectacular tournament. The forward was forced off with an ankle problem during the win over Morocco, but he is expected to be available for the meeting with Spain.

Mbappé has scored eight goals in North America, putting him level with Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race. His performances have helped France reach the last four, while his World Cup knockout-stage record has reached 12 goals — the highest total recorded by any player.

Despite scoring in every other knockout round, including the round of 32, round of 16, quarter-finals, and finals, Mbappé has yet to score in either of his previous semi-final appearances.

The France star has also played a key role in creating chances, particularly through his connection with Ousmane Dembélé. The pair have combined to create 19 opportunities for each other, with Mbappé setting up 10 chances for Dembélé and Dembélé returning the favour nine times.

Only three partnerships since 1966 have produced more than 20 created chances for one another at World Cups: Franz Beckenbauer and Wolfgang Overath, Rivaldo and Ronaldo, and Ángel Di María and Lionel Messi.

Last 5 France matches stats

✅    Serie A players called up for   🇫🇷    the France National team World Cup Squad:

• AC Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan
•  AS Roma midfielder Manu Kone
• AC Milan midfielder Adrien Rabiot
• Inter forward Marcus Thuram

Spain rely on defensive strength and remarkable consistency

Spain has built their tournament campaign around defensive organisation, allowing only one goal so far. Charles De Ketelaere’s header in their 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium remains the only time La Roja have been breached.

Their place in the semi-finals was secured in dramatic fashion when substitute Mikel Merino scored a late winner against Portugal in the last 16 and repeated the achievement against Belgium. He became the first player in World Cup history to score winning goals in two knockout matches as a substitute.

Spain’s defensive reliability has extended beyond this tournament. Since the start of the 2018 World Cup, they have suffered only one defeat in 27 matches at major competitions, recording 16 wins and 10 draws. They have remained unbeaten in their last 14 games since losing 2-1 to Japan at the 2022 World Cup, conceding only five goals and keeping nine clean sheets.

The impressive run has taken Spain to only their second-ever World Cup semi-final. Their previous appearance came in 2010, when they went on to win the competition. Across seven semi-final appearances at major tournaments, their only elimination came against Italy at Euro 2020 after a 1-1 draw and a penalty shootout defeat.

A victory over France would give Spain a record-breaking achievement, as they would become the first European team to win eight consecutive knockout matches at major tournaments. That would surpass Italy’s seven-match run from 1934 to 1938 and Spain’s own seven straight knockout victories between 2008 and 2012.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Previous meetings, injuries and key battles before the semi-final

Neither team will have players suspended for the match, although France must carefully monitor the fitness of William Saliba, Dayot Upamecano, and Aurélien Tchouaméni. The midfielder has missed France’s previous two games due to a muscle problem.

Spain could receive a boost from Nico Williams, who is hoping to feature after recovering from a thigh injury. Yéremy Pino is also pushing for a return after suffering a shoulder issue against Uruguay.

The upcoming clash will be only the second World Cup meeting between France and Spain. Their previous encounter came in the 2006 round of 16, when Spain took the lead before France completed a comeback with two goals in the final 10 minutes to win 3-1.

However, recent history favours Spain, who have lost just twice in their last 10 meetings with France across all competitions, winning seven and drawing one. La Roja have also won their previous two encounters, including a 2-1 victory in the Euro 2024 semi-finals and a dramatic 5-4 Nations League final-four triumph in June last year.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

France goes into this semi-final as slight favourites thanks to their remarkable World Cup consistency, attacking depth, and experience in the later stages of major tournaments. Didier Deschamps’ side have shown the ability to win under pressure, while Kylian Mbappé’s outstanding form and his partnership with Ousmane Dembélé give them a major threat in the final third. Spain, however, arrive with huge confidence after producing one of the most disciplined defensive displays of the tournament and conceding just once so far. Luis de la Fuente’s team has combined technical quality with defensive stability, and their recent success against France proves they are capable of matching the tournament favourites. The match is expected to be a tactical battle between France’s explosive attacking transitions and Spain’s possession-based approach, with both teams likely to be cautious in the early stages. France may have a slight advantage due to their individual quality and knockout experience, but Spain’s organisation and confidence make this one of the closest semi-finals possible.

Prediction: France 2-1 Spain

Expected outcome: A narrow France victory in a high-level encounter where both sides create chances but defensive discipline plays a key role. Spain is unlikely to allow many opportunities and could push the match into extra time, yet Mbappé and France’s attacking talent may provide the decisive moment. A draw after 90 minutes would not be a surprise, as both teams have shown they can control games against elite opponents.

Lionel Messi has achieved almost everything possible during his remarkable career, yet Wednesday’s World Cup semi-final against England in Atlanta will present something entirely unfamiliar. The Argentina captain has represented his country more than 200 times and scored 125 international goals, but he has never previously faced the Three Lions.

For a period during Argentina’s quarter-final against Switzerland, it appeared that opportunity might slip away as the Europeans threatened an upset. Instead, the defending champions found a way through, claiming a 3-1 extra-time victory to secure their place in the last four.

Although Messi did not score in that match, ending his scoring streak at the tournament, he still shares top spot in the Golden Boot standings with France’s Kylian Mbappe on eight goals. He also remains the World Cup’s all-time leading goalscorer.

Former England defender Micah Richards believes Messi’s presence alone changes the dynamic of the contest. He said Argentina builds their game around the Inter Miami forward, whose movement into small pockets of space, exceptional technique, and awareness make him almost impossible to contain. Richards also compared Messi’s personality and presence to Jude Bellingham’s, adding that the Argentine possesses an aura unmatched by any other footballer.

England aware of the threat despite Argentina’s flaws

Chris Sutton believes England will welcome the challenge of facing the current Argentina side, suggesting this version of the South Americans is not among their greatest despite repeatedly finding ways to progress through difficult situations.

Wayne Rooney also pointed to Messi’s unique qualities, explaining that while the veteran contributes little when Argentina are defending, he remains capable of deciding matches through his judgement and quality at decisive moments. According to Rooney, concentration and constant communication between England’s defenders will be essential if they hope to limit his influence.

South American football specialist Tim Vickery described this semi-final as the fixture Argentina had hoped for. He noted that it would have been difficult to imagine Messi ending an international career spanning more than 200 appearances without finally playing against the nation many Argentina supporters regard as their greatest football rivals.

Vickery also recalled the atmosphere during Argentina’s quarter-final victory, when supporters repeatedly sang songs directed at England, suggesting those chants will become even louder before the semi-final showdown.

Rivalry renewed after more than two decades

Meetings between England and Argentina have regularly produced unforgettable moments, helping establish one of international football’s most intense rivalries. Encounters between the two countries have included Diego Maradona’s famous ‘Hand of God’ goal at the 1986 World Cup and David Beckham’s dismissal during the 1998 tournament.

Despite that history, Wednesday’s contest will be the nations’ first meeting for almost 21 years. Since Messi made his Argentina debut as an 18-year-old, England and Argentina have crossed paths only once.

That friendly in Geneva took place just a few months after Messi’s senior debut, but the young forward was unavailable because he was serving a suspension. He had been sent off only 30 seconds into his first international appearance against Hungary after reacting to a challenge from Vilmos Vanczak, with referee Markus Merk producing a straight red card.

Without Messi, Argentina twice moved ahead in Geneva before Michael Owen scored two late goals to give Sven-Goran Eriksson’s England a dramatic 3-2 victory.

The opponents Messi has enjoyed facing most

Messi has strengthened his legendary status with Argentina over the years, becoming both the country’s record appearance-maker and leading scorer before captaining his nation to World Cup glory in 2022.

His scoring record shows remarkable consistency against a wide range of opponents. Bolivia have conceded more goals to him than any other nation, with Messi finding the net 11 times in 12 meetings.

He has also scored seven goals against Venezuela and another seven against Ecuador, while Uruguay and Brazil have each been regular victims as well. European teams have struggled to contain him too, with three goals apiece against Croatia, Switzerland, and France. His three strikes against the French came in only three matches, including a memorable double in the 2022 World Cup final.

Among every country he has faced on more than one occasion, only Qatar has prevented Messi from scoring, despite meeting him twice.

England reached the World Cup semi-finals after overcoming Norway, yet Thomas Tuchel made it clear that the result alone did not satisfy him. The England boss praised the determination, belief, and togetherness shown by his players but admitted he expected a much higher standard with the ball. In his view, too many technical errors, inconsistent passages of play, and a lack of rhythm made the contest unnecessarily difficult.

Although pleased by the resilience his squad displayed, Tuchel stressed that the team is capable of producing far stronger football. He pointed to repeated momentum swings during the match and suggested England were too slow in possession, failing to repeat the patterns that are central to his tactical approach.

The contrast between England’s continued progress and the manager’s critical assessment has become one of the main talking points of the tournament. Despite winning matches, Tuchel believes improved performances are essential if his side are to keep advancing.

The style Tuchel is trying to build

Squad selection before the World Cup reflected the manager’s commitment to a clearly defined system, with players chosen according to specific tactical responsibilities. Competition for certain positions, including the attacking midfield role, highlighted how carefully each player had to fit the overall structure.

The framework is based on controlling possession, pressing opponents aggressively and circulating the ball with purpose to invite pressure before quickly attacking the space left behind. Against deeper defensive blocks, England are expected to create openings through the flanks by combining movement, rotations, and numerical superiority in wide areas.

Those concepts have appeared at different moments throughout the tournament, but Tuchel believes they have not been implemented consistently enough. His criticism after the Norway match focused almost entirely on England’s attacking play rather than their defensive work.

Why Norway caused frustration

Norway defended in a compact 4-5-1 formation, while England organised themselves in a 3-2-5 shape whenever they had possession. Marc Guehi, John Stones, and Ezri Konsa formed the first line, with Declan Rice and Elliot Anderson positioned ahead of them, while Nico O’Reilly advanced into the attacking unit to provide an extra option against Norway’s defence.

When Tuchel said his team was “not repetitive enough”, he was most likely referring to the lack of sustained passing sequences designed to tempt Norway out of shape. His preferred method is to recycle possession patiently before accelerating the attack into newly created spaces either down the wings or beyond the defensive line.

That approach had already been evident earlier in the tournament against Ghana, when Tuchel instructed his players to keep exchanging short passes before switching play quickly. England briefly reproduced that pattern against Norway, drawing defenders towards one side before Anderson attempted to release Noni Madueke into space on the opposite flank. However, those situations became increasingly rare as the game progressed, with England’s possession dropping from 68% before the break to 44% after half-time.

Wide areas offered opportunities England rarely used

The movement within England’s wide triangles was intended to become one of the team’s main attacking weapons during the competition. Norway’s defensive organisation created favourable conditions for those combinations because their wide midfielders stayed alongside the central midfielders while the back four remained narrow.

This structure regularly left space on the outside. As Anthony Gordon moved inside, either O’Reilly or Anderson could attack the vacant channel behind Alexander Sorloth. Because Norway defended zones rather than following individual runners, England could have found free players by moving the ball into those areas more quickly.

Tuchel’s frustration stemmed from England’s inability to recognise and exploit those openings often enough. Similar patterns had previously troubled Norway against Iraq and France, yet England struggled to reproduce them with the same consistency.

One sequence summed up the manager’s concerns. Instead of moving the ball rapidly towards the unoccupied flank, Guehi carried possession at a slow tempo before forcing a pass through the centre, which was intercepted in a dangerous position. That example reflected Tuchel’s description of his side as “sloppy”.

Assistant coach Anthony Barry had expressed similar concerns earlier in the tournament after the Croatia match, saying England were not finding passes through the gaps or increasing the tempo as intended, instead slipping back into cautious habits. Five matches later, those observations still appeared relevant.

Individual quality continues to deliver

Although England did not fully exploit Norway’s defensive structure, they still found decisive moments through the players’ natural instincts. Their opening goal came after Orjan Nyland’s long goal kick reached Anderson, leaving Norway temporarily disorganised as they prepared for an aerial contest.

Anderson drove forward powerfully, forcing Julian Ryerson to commit before releasing Gordon into space on the left. As Kristoffer Ajer shifted across to cover, Sander Berge dropped into the defensive line, creating an opening for Jude Bellingham, who arrived unmarked and finished confidently.

England’s first goal against Mexico had followed a similar pattern. After regaining possession against an unsettled defence, Rice carried the ball directly at the full-back, delaying his movement and allowing Bukayo Saka to receive wide before Bellingham again timed his run into space created by Harry Kane’s movement.

The winning goal against Norway also arrived while the opposition was reorganising after defending a corner. Morgan Rogers’ powerful strike forced Nyland into a save, and Bellingham reacted quickest to convert the rebound. His anticipation once again proved decisive.

After the match, Bellingham highlighted the psychological side of tournament football, saying success depends on handling adversity as much as technical or tactical qualities. England have repeatedly shown they can thrive in chaotic situations through individual talent and mental strength, but Tuchel remains convinced that stronger collective performances will provide a more reliable path to victory.

With Argentina waiting in the semi-finals and having shown weaknesses in wide areas, the England manager is expected to continue searching for the attacking fluency he believes his team can achieve.

Norway and England will meet in a fiercely contested World Cup quarter-final in the heat and humidity of Miami on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer predicting one of the closest encounters of the last eight. England were victorious in 62.3% of 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Norway advanced in the remaining 37.7%, highlighting the narrow gap between the two sides.

Before the quarter-finals began, England was not considered the strongest favourite to reach the semi-finals. France had a 73.9% chance of progressing against Morocco, Spain stood at 69.8% against Belgium, and Argentina was given a 69.4% chance of defeating Switzerland, all ahead of the Three Lions in the simulations.

For Norway, this match represents unfamiliar territory as they prepare for their first-ever appearance in a major tournament quarter-final. Their impressive run has included a memorable victory over Brazil, the most successful nation in World Cup history, proving that they have the quality to challenge the biggest teams.

The Norwegians have produced entertaining football throughout the competition, scoring and conceding in all five of their matches so far. They have found the net 12 times while allowing nine goals, with Germany’s 1954 campaign remaining the only previous example of a team reaching the semi-finals after both scoring and conceding at least 10 goals.

Norway chasing historic achievement

Ståle Solbakken’s side has won every match except one during this World Cup, with their only defeat arriving on Matchday 3 when they rotated heavily and made 10 changes against France, who are regarded as the tournament favourites.

Norway would have finished top of Group I if they had beaten France, but Solbakken’s choice to rest key players and accept second place has worked in their favour. Since then, they have secured difficult victories against Ivory Coast and Brazil to continue their historic campaign.

The biggest threat in Norway’s attack remains Erling Haaland, who has made an immediate impact on the biggest international stage. The Manchester City striker has scored in each of his first four World Cup appearances, producing seven goals from only 18 shots.

His contribution has been decisive, with four of those goals proving to be match-winners. Only Grzegorz Lato of Poland in 1974 and Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 have scored more winning goals during a single World Cup campaign, with both players recording five.

Haaland’s incredible form has strengthened his already outstanding record for Norway. He has scored 62 goals in 54 appearances and has found the net in 14 consecutive competitive matches for his country, scoring 27 times during that run.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

England aiming to continue their tournament journey

England have experienced mixed results throughout the tournament, but their victory over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in the previous round demonstrated the qualities needed for a deep World Cup run. Their performance showed a combination of ability, resilience, and the fortune often required in knockout football.

Unlike Norway, the Three Lions are familiar with this stage of the competition. Only Brazil and Germany, both with 14 appearances, have reached more World Cup quarter-finals than England, who are preparing for their 11th appearance in the last eight.

However, their history at this stage has been difficult. England have progressed from only three of their previous 10 World Cup quarter-finals and have conceded multiple goals in seven of those matches.

A major challenge will be dealing with Haaland, but England possess their own world-class attacking options. Harry Kane remains one of the leading scorers at this tournament with six goals, one fewer than Haaland, matching the total he achieved during the 2018 World Cup.

Kane has consistently delivered in important matches, scoring 11 goals across his 12 knockout-stage appearances at major international tournaments. Meanwhile, Jude Bellingham has also made history, scoring four times in this tournament to become the highest-scoring England midfielder at a single World Cup.

Last 5 England matches stats

History, records and key battles

The upcoming quarterfinal will be the 13th meeting between Norway and England, with their most recent encounter coming in September 2014 when England won a friendly 1-0. Overall, Norway have claimed victory only twice in their previous 12 meetings and have failed to score in each of the last four clashes.

Jordan Pickford could set a new England World Cup appearance record in this match by making his 18th appearance at the tournament, surpassing Peter Shilton. However, he has struggled against Haaland in the Premier League, conceding seven goals from the 10 shots on target he has faced from the Norwegian forward.

Both teams enter the match with players capable of deciding the outcome. Haaland, Kane, and Bellingham have all produced major moments at this World Cup, but only one of them can become the figure remembered for sending their nation into the semi-finals.

England have been eliminated in five of their last six World Cup knockout matches against European opponents, including a 2-1 quarter-final defeat to France in 2022. Norway, meanwhile, have never won a World Cup match against European opposition, recording two draws and four defeats, with both of their previous knockout losses coming against Italy.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Norway and England are expected to produce one of the most evenly matched quarter-finals of the tournament, with both teams possessing elite attacking talent capable of deciding the contest. England’s greater experience at this stage of the World Cup and the quality of players such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham give them a slight advantage, while their defensive focus will be tested by the unstoppable form of Erling Haaland. Norway have already shown they can compete with the world’s best after defeating Brazil, and their attacking approach has made them one of the most entertaining sides in the competition. The match is likely to be intense and open, with England aiming to control possession and Norway looking to use their pace and direct play to exploit spaces. The decisive factor could come down to which defence handles the opposition’s main attacking threat more effectively.

Prediction: England 2-1 Norway

Expected outcome: A narrow England victory in a closely fought quarter-final, with the Three Lions’ tournament experience and depth helping them edge past a dangerous Norway side. However, Norway’s confidence, attacking firepower, and Haaland’s incredible scoring form mean they have every chance of causing another major upset. A high-scoring draw after 90 minutes would not be a surprise, but England are slightly better positioned to secure a place in the semi-finals.

Belgium and Spain will battle for a place in the World Cup semi-finals when they meet in Los Angeles on Friday. Both nations arrive in the last eight after impressive knockout victories, setting up one of the standout ties of the tournament.

Belgium finished first in Group G despite producing performances that were not always convincing. They then recovered from 2-0 down to defeat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32 before producing their strongest display yet by crushing co-host United States 4-1 in the last 16.

Spain’s route has also been impressive. Their latest victory came in dramatic fashion, with Mikel Merino striking in the 91st minute to secure a 1-0 success against Portugal and send La Roja into the quarter-finals for the sixth time.

The meeting offers Belgium the chance to continue their growing momentum, while Spain will look to extend a remarkable defensive run that has carried them deep into the competition.

Spain relying on defence and rising stars

Breaking through Spain’s back line has proved almost impossible. Their victory over Portugal delivered a sixth successive clean sheet, establishing a new World Cup record, while they have now gone 10 hours and nine minutes without conceding in the competition.

Their defensive dominance is reflected in the numbers. Spain has allowed an average expected goals against figure of just 0.30 per game, the lowest ever recorded by a team across a single World Cup finals.

At the other end, Lamine Yamal continues to make a major impact. The Barcelona winger has completed 17 successful dribbles during the tournament, with only Jamal Musiala in 2022 and Kylian Mbappé in 2018 managing more as teenagers at a World Cup since records began in 1966.

Rodri has also been central to Spain’s control of matches. His 80 line-breaking passes are the highest total by a Spanish player at a World Cup since 2010, when Gerard Piqué, Xavi, and Xabi Alonso all produced even higher numbers during Spain’s title-winning campaign.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Belgium finding their attacking rhythm

Rudi Garcia’s side have become increasingly dangerous in front of goal as the tournament has progressed. Against the United States, Charles De Ketelaere scored twice before second-half substitutes Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku completed the scoring in a commanding victory.

Although Lukaku has found the net in each of Belgium’s last three World Cup matches, all of those goals have come after he entered from the bench. Only Roger Milla scored more substitute goals at a single World Cup, with four for Cameroon in 1990, meaning Lukaku could once again begin among the replacements.

Belgium’s finishing has been one of their greatest strengths. Their shot conversion rate stands at 12.1%, their second-best return at a World Cup since 1966, surpassed only by the 15.2% recorded during the 2018 tournament in Russia.

The opportunities are also arriving regularly. Garcia’s team has averaged 21.4 attempts per match, producing 107 shots across five games, a figure only bettered by Belgium’s average of 24 attempts per contest at the 1970 World Cup.

Last 5 Belgium matches stats

History, records and a familiar rivalry

Luis de la Fuente has guided Spain through each of his six knockout matches at major tournaments. Victory over Belgium would place him alongside only Vittorio Pozzo and Vicente del Bosque as managers to win each of their first seven knockout ties against European opposition.

Belgium, however, has previous experience of denying Spain at this stage. The Red Devils eliminated La Roja on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the quarter-finals of the 1986 World Cup, although Spain won their other World Cup meeting 2-1 during the group stage four years later.

Recent encounters between the nations have largely favoured Spain. They have not lost to Belgium in their last 11 meetings in all competitions, collecting nine victories and two draws since a 2-1 defeat at the 1980 European Championship.

Their most recent clash came in September 2016, when David Silva scored twice in a 2-0 friendly victory in Brussels. Spain have also won each of the last five meetings, outscoring Belgium 13-1 across those matches.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Spain enters this quarter-final with a slight advantage thanks to their outstanding defensive record, consistent performances throughout the tournament, and impressive balance between defensive stability and attacking creativity. Luis de la Fuente’s side has yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, while players such as Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Mikel Merino have played key roles in their progress to the last eight. Belgium, however, arrives full of confidence after back-to-back knockout victories, including an emphatic win over the United States, and their attack has become increasingly dangerous with Charles De Ketelaere in fine form and Romelu Lukaku making a major impact from the bench. Rudi Garcia’s team has shown resilience and clinical finishing, meaning they are more than capable of testing Spain’s exceptional defence. The match is likely to be closely contested, with Spain expected to dominate possession while Belgium looks to exploit their efficiency in front of goal and strike on quick transitions.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Belgium

Expected outcome: A tightly fought encounter in which Spain’s defensive discipline and control of the game ultimately prove decisive, securing a place in the semi-finals. Belgium should create chances and remain competitive throughout, but Spain’s consistency at both ends of the pitch gives them a narrow edge. A draw after 90 minutes would not be an unexpected outcome, although Spain appears slightly more likely to progress.