Paraguay and the United States will launch their Group D campaigns on Saturday in Los Angeles as both nations seek an early boost at the 2026 World Cup. The tournament is being staged across three host countries for the first time, with the United States sharing hosting duties alongside Mexico and Canada.

According to the Opta supercomputer, the Americans have a 1.1% chance of winning the title. Before they can think about a deep run, Mauricio Pochettino’s side must first navigate a challenging group that also includes Australia and Türkiye.

The United States completed their preparations with a 2-1 defeat of Germany in Chicago last week. Antonee Robinson scored their only goal in a match that marked the end of nearly two years of work under Pochettino before the squad travelled west for the opening stage of the tournament.

For the former Tottenham manager, this competition represents his first World Cup as a head coach. Expectations are high, with many hoping the hosts can use familiar surroundings and strong support to advance far into the competition.

American hopes built on recent tournament consistency

The United States achieved their greatest World Cup result in 1930, when they defeated Paraguay on the way to a third-place finish. That remains the only occasion a CONCACAF nation has ended a World Cup among the top four teams.

In more recent history, the Americans reached the quarter-finals in 2002, while their previous home World Cup campaign in 1994 concluded in the round of 16. They now have another opportunity to improve on that achievement while playing in front of their own supporters.

There are reasons for optimism. The United States has progressed beyond the group stage in each of their last three World Cup appearances, in 2010, 2014, and 2022. They have also suffered only one defeat in their previous nine group-stage matches, recording three wins and five draws during that span.

All of their Group D fixtures will take place on the west coast, although their record in Los Angeles is not perfect, having lost twice at the stadium hosting Saturday’s encounter.

Last 5 United States matches stats

Paraguay return after a long absence

Paraguay secured the final automatic qualification place from South America by finishing sixth in the continental standings. Their route to the tournament was built on a disciplined style, reflected by the lowest average possession and the smallest goal difference among the qualifying teams.

Set-pieces proved especially important, accounting for more than a third of their goals during qualification. Those results earned La Albirroja a place at the World Cup for the ninth time and their first appearance since 2010.

Their finest World Cup performance also came in 2010, when they advanced to the quarter-finals. The team is now guided by Gustavo Alfaro, one of six Argentine coaches participating in this year’s tournament and the third from his country to manage Paraguay at a World Cup.

One of Alfaro’s standout achievements during qualification was a 2-1 victory over Argentina. However, Paraguay were beaten by the United States by the same scoreline in a friendly played last November.

Last 5 Paraguay matches stats

Key players and historical record

Ahead of the tournament, Paraguay recorded a comfortable 4-0 victory over Nicaragua in their final warm-up match. Despite that result, their history in World Cup openers is modest, with only one victory from eight attempts.

The United States has its own statistical challenge, carrying the second-lowest winning percentage in World Cup history among nations that have played at least 30 matches. Much of their attacking responsibility is expected to fall on Christian Pulisic, who contributed to all three American goals at the 2022 World Cup and impressed against Germany despite a difficult year in Milan.

For Paraguay, Antonio Sanabria finished as the team’s leading scorer during qualification with four goals. Interestingly, three of those strikes came after he entered from the bench, raising questions about whether he could again play an important role as a substitute.

Saturday’s match will be only the second World Cup meeting between the two nations. Their first encounter came in 1930, when the United States claimed a 3-0 victory. The teams have also met twice in Copa América competition, with Paraguay winning 3-1 in 2007 before the Americans earned a 1-0 success nine years later. In friendly matches played since 2000, the United States holds a 3-1 advantage.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

The United States appears to have a slight edge heading into their Group D opener against Paraguay, largely because of home advantage and their recent record at World Cups. While Paraguay earned their place in the tournament through a disciplined and organized qualifying campaign, the Americans have consistently progressed from the group stage in recent editions and should benefit from strong support in Los Angeles.

The match is expected to be closely contested. Paraguay is likely to focus on defensive solidity and look for opportunities from set pieces, which were an important source of goals during qualification. The United States, meanwhile, should try to take the initiative in possession and rely on players such as Christian Pulisic to create chances in the final third.

A tight encounter seems the most likely outcome, but the hosts may have enough quality to claim all three points. A narrow United States victory, perhaps by a 2-1 scoreline, looks like the most plausible result, although a draw would not be a surprise given how evenly matched the teams appear on paper.