Uruguay face Spain in Guadalajara on Friday in what is being described as the standout fixture of Group H at this year’s World Cup. While Spain have already secured qualification and are strongly placed to finish top of the group, Uruguay arrive under pressure after a difficult start that has left their progression hopes uncertain.

The Opta supercomputer currently gives Uruguay a 36.4% chance of advancing to the next round, compared with Spain’s 84.7% probability of topping the group. Uruguay also carries a concerning record in Mexico, having won only one of their last nine World Cup matches there, alongside three draws and five defeats, with their only victory in that span coming against the USSR in 1970 after extra time.

Uruguay searches for answers under Bielsa

Marcelo Bielsa’s side have struggled to convert performances into wins this tournament, drawing both of their opening matches despite opportunities to secure better results. They were held by Saudi Arabia in their first game before being involved in a surprise 1-1 draw with Cape Verde, where Kevin Pina’s free-kick and Helio Varela’s equaliser cancelled out Agustín Canobbio’s opener.

These results have placed Uruguay in a precarious position, with the team having only once previously drawn three consecutive World Cup matches between 2002 and 2010. After being eliminated in the group stage in 2022, they now face the possibility of missing out on the knockout rounds in consecutive tournaments for the first time, which would mark an unwanted shift in their World Cup record.

Last 5 Uruguay matches stats

Spain’s confidence is growing after strong start

Spain arrives in far more comfortable circumstances after a dominant 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, a match in which Lamine Yamal opened the scoring before Mikel Oyarzabal struck twice quickly and an own goal completed the result. Luis de la Fuente’s team have now won their final group-stage match at every World Cup between 1986 and 2014, although they failed to do so in the last two editions.

Defensively, Spain have been particularly impressive, keeping clean sheets in each of their last three World Cup matches and recording one of the best clean-sheet rates of any team in the 21st century, at 48 percent (14 of 29 matches). They have also conceded very few chances recently, facing just 21 shots across their last four World Cup games, including matches against Saudi Arabia, Cape Verde, Morocco, and Japan, highlighting their defensive control.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Head-to-head history and key statistical storylines

The two sides will meet in the World Cup for the third time, with their most recent encounter coming in a 0-0 draw in the 1990 group stage, while their only other meeting was a 2-2 draw in 1950.

Spain’s defensive solidity could be crucial against an inconsistent Uruguay attack that has shown sharp contrasts in efficiency, scoring once from 10 shots on target against Saudi Arabia before converting both of their on-target efforts against Cape Verde. Spain also has a rising attacking threat in teenager Lamine Yamal, who became one of the youngest goalscorers in World Cup history at 18 years and 343 days and could join Pelé as one of the few teenagers to score in consecutive World Cup appearances if he finds the net again.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Spain enters this match as clear favourites thanks to their strong start to the tournament, defensive solidity, and superior statistical profile compared to Uruguay. Luis de la Fuente’s side have kept clean sheets in their last three World Cup matches and have conceded very few chances recently, which suggests they are well-equipped to contain a Uruguay attack that has been inconsistent in front of goal. Uruguay, meanwhile, have struggled to turn performances into wins, drawing both of their opening group games and showing mixed efficiency in front of goal across those matches. Marcelo Bielsa’s team will need a sharp improvement in finishing if they are to trouble a Spain side that has controlled games comfortably and limited opponents to very few shots. Spain’s attacking quality, highlighted by the emergence of Lamine Yamal and the form of Mikel Oyarzabal, gives them the most likely route to breaking the deadlock.

Prediction: Uruguay 0-2 Spain

Expected outcome: A controlled Spanish victory built on defensive discipline and clinical finishing, which would secure their position at the top of Group H while leaving Uruguay in a difficult position and dependent on other results to keep their knockout hopes alive.

Norway and France will meet in Boston on Friday with first place in FIFA World Cup Group I still to be decided. Although both nations have already secured qualification for the last 32, finishing at the top of the standings remains significant because the winners will face a third-placed team in the next round, while the runners-up are set to play the second-placed side from Group E, which is expected to be either Ivory Coast or Ecuador.

The fixture also brings together two of the tournament’s most prolific forwards. Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappé have each scored two braces in their opening two matches, placing them alongside Lionel Messi in what is developing into a remarkable contest for the Golden Boot. Weather forecasts indicate that storms could once again affect proceedings, adding another layer of uncertainty to the encounter.

Haaland followed his double against Iraq with another two goals in Norway’s 3-2 victory over Senegal. Should he score at least twice again, he would become only the third player to record multiple goals in each of his first three World Cup appearances, matching achievements previously set by Guillermo Stabile in 1930 and Sándor Kocsis in 1954.

Norway set for changes after Senegal win

Norway head into the match after collecting as many victories in this World Cup as they managed across their previous three appearances combined. Their success over Senegal came at a physical cost, however, as several players suffered from cramps late in the game, leaving the team down to nine men after all substitutions had already been used.

Head coach Ståle Solbakken has confirmed that rotation is expected because of the short recovery period and the condition of several squad members. He explained that changes are necessary to keep the team fresh, while also suggesting it would be difficult to predict his starting lineup.

The Norwegians are also waiting to learn the condition of Julian Ryerson, who was forced off after only 13 minutes against Senegal. Marcus Pedersen replaced him and went on to score the opening goal, providing an immediate impact from the bench.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

France chasing a perfect group stage

France approach their final group fixture after a 3-0 victory over Iraq, a match that included a 130-minute interruption because of storms. Mbappé scored twice in that game to move onto 16 goals from 16 World Cup appearances, drawing level with Miroslav Klose on the competition’s all-time scoring list. Lionel Messi, meanwhile, has raised the overall record to 18 goals after scoring five times in his first two matches of this tournament.

Les Bleus will be without head coach Didier Deschamps on the touchline after the French Football Federation confirmed he had returned home following the death of his mother. Assistant coach Guy Stéphan will take charge of the team for the meeting with Norway.

France also received a boost before the match as Malo Gusto recovered from a foot injury to make his first appearance of the tournament against Iraq. His return gives him the opportunity to compete with Jules Koundé for the right-back position.

Last 5 France matches stats

History and records add extra intrigue

This contest will mark the 16th meeting between Norway and France and their first since France recorded a 4-0 victory in a friendly played in Paris in May 2014. Norway have managed only two wins from the previous 10 competitive encounters, with their last success coming in a European Championship qualifier in Oslo in June 1987.

France have the chance to complete three victories from three group-stage matches, something they have achieved only once before at a World Cup. That came during the 1998 tournament on home soil, when they eventually lifted the trophy.

The historical statistics also favour France in another area. Norway have never defeated another European nation at the World Cup, drawing twice and losing three of their five such matches. France, meanwhile, has won each of their last five World Cup meetings with European opponents, including victories over England, Croatia, and Belgium.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Norway and France appear evenly matched on paper, but France may hold a slight advantage thanks to their greater tournament pedigree and the depth of quality throughout their squad. Kylian Mbappé’s outstanding scoring form gives Les Bleus a decisive attacking weapon, while Norway will again look to Erling Haaland to make the difference in front of goal. With both teams already through to the knockout stage, tactical discipline and squad rotation could play a significant role in determining the outcome. Norway have shown they can compete with top opposition, but France’s experience in high-pressure World Cup matches could prove decisive in key moments.

Prediction: Norway 1-2 France

Expected outcome: A closely contested encounter in which France edge a high-quality battle to finish top of Group I, while Norway head into the knockout rounds with plenty of confidence despite a narrow defeat.