Category Archives: Match Analytics 2026 World Cup

A historic night when England’s heroes conquered the Azteca fortress

England produced a famous 3-2 victory over Mexico at the Azteca Stadium in a match filled with drama, emotion, and extreme conditions. The win sends them through to the quarter-finals, where they will face Norway in Miami on Saturday at 22:00 BST.

The contest unfolded in a stadium known for its overwhelming atmosphere, with Mexico supporters creating a deafening noise and even some in tears during the national anthem. England also had to deal with an altitude above 7,000ft and a weather delay of an hour caused by storms before kick-off.

Mexico entered the match with a dominant home record, having lost only twice in 89 competitive games at the venue, which underlined the scale of England’s achievement. Despite early doubts around their progress in the tournament, England responded with a performance that stood out as one of their most significant victories in years.

Even after going down to 10 men, England held firm through a tense finale that included 11 minutes of added time, finishing a night described as chaotic, emotional, and unforgettable.

Tuchel’s decisions steer England through chaos

England head coach Thomas Tuchel played a decisive role in shaping the outcome, with his tactical approach designed to absorb early pressure by sitting deep and slowing Mexico’s momentum. This allowed England to manage possession and reduce the intensity of the home side’s attack while coping with a hostile crowd.

His biggest test came after Jarell Quansah was sent off early in the second half, forcing immediate structural changes. Tuchel responded by introducing John Stones and later reshaping the side further with Dan Burn and Djed Spence to form a more defensive setup.

England were also boosted by Harry Kane, who scored from the penalty spot to extend the lead to 3-1, although he later conceded a penalty that brought Mexico back into the match. The closing stages became increasingly frantic as England defended their narrow advantage.

Former England captain Alan Shearer praised the manager’s substitutions and the collective discipline of the team, highlighting how the changes helped England survive sustained pressure in the final minutes.

Bellingham delivers decisive match-defining display

Jude Bellingham produced a standout performance, scoring twice to give England control of the match in its early stages. His influence went beyond goals, as he also made a crucial goal-line intervention that prevented Mexico from equalising before halftime.

Even after Mexico pulled a goal back, Bellingham remained central to England’s control of the game. His overall display was described as a complete performance on the biggest stage, reinforcing his importance in the squad.

Former defender Micah Richards praised his confidence and consistency, noting his ability to elevate his game when playing for his country. Bellingham himself spoke about pride in representing England and creating memorable nights for supporters.

His contribution proved vital in a match where momentum repeatedly shifted, especially after England were reduced to 10 players and forced into a defensive battle.

Pickford stands firm under mounting pressure

Jordan Pickford delivered a crucial performance in goal, producing two important first-half saves from Raul Jimenez and later asserting control over his area as Mexico pushed forward.

Although his form earlier in the tournament had been inconsistent, this display marked one of his most composed and reliable performances for England. He played a key role in maintaining the lead during Mexico’s late pressure.

Pickford equalled Peter Shilton’s record of 17 World Cup appearances and is set to surpass it in the next round. He described the match as emotional and intense, emphasising the resilience shown by the team.

His ability to remain focused in a chaotic environment helped England withstand a barrage of pressure in the final stages of the match.

heroes emerge as England reflects on epic victory

After the final whistle, players collapsed in exhaustion and celebration, reflecting the physical and emotional toll of the match. Tuchel embraced Bellingham in celebration as England secured a victory he described as “beautiful to see.”

Tuchel expressed pride in his team’s attitude and effort, highlighting their response to every challenge thrown at them, from altitude and weather delays to playing with 10 men. He described the match as an emotional and dramatic rollercoaster.

Harry Kane also spoke about the collective effort, stating that the entire team produced hero-like performances and that it was one of the most memorable nights of his career.

England now moves forward in the tournament with confidence after overcoming one of the most difficult away environments in international football.

Match preview: Mexico vs England

England’s World Cup campaign now takes them to the stadium officially known as Estadio Banorte, referred to as Mexico City Stadium during the 2026 tournament, where they will meet co-hosts Mexico in the last 16. The venue carries special significance for the Three Lions, as it was the scene of one of the most talked-about matches in their history four decades ago.

Forty years have passed since England were eliminated by Argentina in the quarter-finals of the 1986 World Cup at the same ground. After a goalless first half, Diego Maradona opened the scoring with the infamous “Hand of God” goal before producing a remarkable solo effort for his second. Gary Lineker reduced the deficit late on, but England’s tournament came to an end.

The circumstances are different this time, but England know they face another demanding challenge. Along with taking on one of the tournament’s co-hosts, Thomas Tuchel’s players must also cope with the high-altitude conditions in Mexico City.

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Kick-off Time: 18:00 Mexico City local time (UTC-6)
Venue: Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico
Venue Capacity: 87,000
Opponents: Mexico vs. England (Round of 16)
The match is played at an altitude of approximately 2,240 meters. This thin air reduces friction, causing the football to travel significantly further and faster through the air, requiring English players to adjust their long passes

England seek another place in the quarter-finals

England reached the knockout stages by finishing first in their group before overcoming DR Congo 2-1 in Atlanta. Harry Kane struck twice in the closing stages to complete the comeback, with his first goal arriving from a header.

Kane’s aerial ability has become a defining feature of his tournament. He has now scored four headed goals in World Cup competition, including three during the current edition. Since records began in 1966, only Miroslav Klose, with seven, and Gerd Müller, with five, have registered more headed World Cup goals than the England captain.

Progressing past Mexico would send England into the last eight for a third consecutive World Cup, following their semi-final appearance in 2018 and quarter-final run in Qatar four years later. The only previous occasion they achieved quarter-final qualification or better at three successive tournaments came between 1962, 1966, and 1970.

Jordan Pickford is also approaching a personal milestone. The Everton goalkeeper received criticism after failing to stop Brian Cipenga’s near-post strike against DR Congo, but another appearance would be his 17th at the World Cup, drawing him level with Peter Shilton for the most by an England men’s player.

Last 5 England matches stats

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International friendlies

Mexico 2 – 0 Ecuador

Czechia 0 – 3 Mexico

Mexico 1 – 0 South Korea

Mexico 2 – 0 South Africa

Mexico 5 – 1 Serbia

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Mexico continues its impressive home tournament

Mexico has enjoyed an outstanding campaign on home soil, winning all three of their group fixtures before defeating Ecuador 2-0 in the first knockout round. Those results mean Javier Aguirre’s side have already collected four victories, their highest total in a single World Cup.

Their record at the Azteca has been equally impressive. Mexico remains unbeaten there in World Cup matches, recording eight victories and two draws, while six consecutive wins have come at the venue. This will also be their 11th World Cup appearance at the stadium, the highest number of matches played by any nation at one ground in the competition’s history.

Across 89 competitive fixtures at the Azteca, Mexico has suffered only two defeats, against Costa Rica in 2001 and Honduras in 2013. They currently carry a 22-match unbeaten run in competitive games there, made up of 16 wins and six draws.

Defensive consistency has also defined Mexico’s tournament. Another clean sheet would make them only the second team to begin a World Cup with five successive shutouts after Italy achieved the feat in 1990 before eventually finishing third.

Last 5 Mexico matches stats

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England 2 – 1 DR Congo

Panama 0 – 2 England

England 0 – 0 Ghana

England 4 – 2 Croatia

England 3 – 0 Costa Rica

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Previous meetings and players to watch

Julián Quiñones has emerged as one of Mexico’s standout performers, contributing directly to four goals through three strikes and one assist. That equals the best total by a Mexican player in a single World Cup since records began in 1966, matching Luis Hernández’s achievement from 1998. One more goal would also see Quiñones equal Hernández’s national record of four goals at a single tournament.

Roberto Alvarado has made a major creative contribution, providing three assists, the highest figure recorded by a Mexican player at a World Cup since 1966. He also leads his country’s statistics for chances created with 10, possession won with 15, and tackles with seven during this edition.

The upcoming contest represents only the second World Cup meeting between England and Mexico. Their previous encounter came in the group stage of the 1966 tournament, when England secured a 2-0 victory thanks to goals from Bobby Charlton and Roger Hunt before eventually lifting the trophy.

England have also won each of their last four meetings with Mexico, although all of those matches were friendlies played between 1986 and 2010. This will be only the fourth occasion England has faced a host nation at the World Cup, following matches against Switzerland in 1954, Spain in 1982, and Italy in 1990.

Past H2H Results

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England 3 – 1 Mexico

England 2 – 0 Mexico

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Prediction and expected outcome

England appear to hold a slight advantage heading into this last-16 tie thanks to their greater experience in the latter stages of recent World Cups and the attacking form of Harry Kane, who has already delivered crucial goals during the tournament. However, Mexico will draw enormous confidence from playing on home soil, where they boast an exceptional record at the Azteca and have yet to concede a goal at this World Cup. Javier Aguirre’s side have combined defensive resilience with attacking efficiency, making them one of the tournament’s most difficult teams to break down. England is likely to enjoy more possession, while Mexico will look to capitalise on the energy of the home crowd and the pace of players such as Julián Quiñones. The contest is expected to be closely fought, with fine margins and individual quality likely to determine the outcome.

Prediction: Mexico 1-2 England

Expected outcome: A narrow England victory after a highly competitive encounter, sending the Three Lions into the quarter-finals while ending Mexico’s impressive unbeaten run on home soil. England’s greater knockout experience could prove decisive, although Mexico have every chance of forcing extra time or producing an upset if they maintain their outstanding defensive form.

Match preview: Brazil vs Norway

Brazil and Norway will meet on Sunday for a place in the World Cup quarter-finals, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side looking to build on a dramatic victory over Japan in the previous round. The five-time world champions needed a late goal from Gabriel Martinelli to complete a 2-1 comeback after Casemiro had cancelled out Kaishu Sano’s opener in Houston.

Norway also required a late winner to progress, as Erling Haaland struck in the 86th minute to secure a 2-1 success over Ivory Coast. That result delivered the country’s first-ever victory in a World Cup knockout match and extended an already memorable tournament for Ståle Solbakken’s team.

Both nations now head into the last 16 after narrow wins, but the upcoming encounter in New Jersey presents a significantly tougher challenge, with a place among the final eight at stake.

Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
Kick-off Time: 16:00 New York local time (UTC-4)
Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Venue Capacity: 82,500
Opponents: Brazil vs. Norway (Round of 16)
Across four historical meetings (three friendlies and the 1998 World Cup), Brazil has failed to defeat Norway, posting two losses and two draws

Brazil searching for greater attacking rhythm

Although Brazil have reached the knockout stages, Ancelotti may still want to see more from his forwards. His team have attempted 60 shots across four matches, averaging 15.0 per game, making it their second-lowest figure at a single World Cup, ahead of only the 1998 campaign.

At the same time, Brazil’s opportunities have been of notably high quality. Their expected goals per shot stands at 0.16, the highest they have recorded during the period covered by these statistics, suggesting they are creating better chances despite taking fewer attempts.

Bruno Guimarães has been one of Brazil’s standout performers, providing the assist for Martinelli’s winner against Japan to move onto four assists at the tournament. Since 1966, only Pelé has managed more assists for Brazil in a single World Cup edition, recording six in 1970.

Victory over Norway would also give Brazil a fourth consecutive World Cup win, something they have not achieved since an 11-match winning sequence spanning the 2002 and 2006 tournaments. History also favours the South Americans in this round, as they have advanced from nine of their previous 10 last-16 matches, with only a 1-0 defeat to Argentina in 1990 preventing a perfect record.

Last 5 Brazil matches stats

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Brazil 2 – 1 Japan

Scotland 0 – 3 Brazil

Brazil 3 – 0 Haiti

Brazil 1 – 1 Morocco

Brazil 2 – 1 Egypt

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Norway relying on Haaland’s remarkable form

Norway continue to impress thanks largely to Haaland, whose decisive goal against Ivory Coast extended his scoring streak to 13 straight competitive international appearances. During that run, the striker has found the net 25 times and now has the chance to become only the eighth European player to score in each of his first four World Cup matches.

If he scores again, Haaland would also become the first European footballer to achieve that feat since Christian Vieri did so for Italy in 1998. Norway’s attacking threat is further strengthened by Martin Ødegaard, who created Antonio Nusa’s goal in the previous round.

Ødegaard could make history by registering an assist in each of his first four World Cup appearances. He would also become only the third player on record to produce assists in four consecutive matches at the finals after Thomas Häßler in 1994 and Zico in 1982.

Despite their attacking success, Norway has defensive concerns. They have both scored and conceded in all four matches at this tournament, producing 10 goals while allowing eight. Solbakken will hope his team can be more solid against the pace and quality of Vinícius Júnior and Matheus Cunha.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

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Ivory Coast 1 – 2 Norway

Norway 1 – 4 France

Norway 3 – 2 Senegal

Iraq 1 – 4 Norway

Morocco 1 – 1 Norway

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Previous meetings and historical trends

Norway have enjoyed the better record in this fixture, remaining unbeaten across the four previous meetings with Brazil by winning twice and drawing twice. Their most memorable encounter came at the 1998 World Cup, where the Scandinavians claimed a 2-1 victory.

Brazil also faces an unwanted trend against European opposition in the knockout stages. Since defeating Germany in the 2002 World Cup final, they have been eliminated in each of their last six knockout matches against teams from Europe.

Those exits came against France in the 2006 quarter-finals, the Netherlands in the 2010 quarter-finals, Germany in the 2014 semi-finals, the Netherlands again in the 2014 third-place play-off, Belgium in the 2018 quarter-finals, and Croatia in the 2022 quarter-finals.

Norway’s run at this tournament has already rewritten parts of their history. Before 2026, they had played only two knockout matches at major tournaments, losing both to Italy in 1938 and 1998, while three of the country’s six victories at major tournaments have now come during this World Cup. Another notable statistic is that Norway have both scored and conceded in each of their first four matches, putting them on course to join a short list of nations to do so in their opening five games of a single World Cup edition.

Past H2H Results

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Norway 1 – 1 Brazil

Brazil 1 – 2 Norway

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Prediction and expected outcome

Brazil enter this last-16 encounter as slight favourites because of their greater World Cup pedigree and consistent record in knockout matches, but Norway have already shown they are capable of troubling elite opposition. Carlo Ancelotti’s side have not been at their attacking best, though the quality of the chances they are creating suggests they remain a major threat, while Bruno Guimarães’ creativity and Gabriel Martinelli’s confidence after his late winner could prove decisive. Norway, meanwhile, possess one of the tournament’s most dangerous forwards in Erling Haaland, whose remarkable international scoring streak gives them every chance of causing an upset, especially with Martin Ødegaard supplying opportunities. Brazil is likely to dominate possession, but Norway’s direct attacking approach and ability to score consistently should ensure a closely contested match. The key battle may be whether Brazil can finally convert their superiority into goals while limiting Haaland’s influence.

Prediction: Brazil 2-1 Norway

Expected outcome: A closely fought contest in which Brazil’s greater tournament experience and ability to create high-quality chances ultimately prove decisive, sending them into the quarter-finals. Norway is expected to threaten throughout, particularly through Haaland, and should make Brazil work for victory. While Brazil has the edge on balance, Norway’s attacking form means extra time or even an upset cannot be completely ruled out.

Match preview: Canada vs Morocco

The 2026 FIFA World Cup round of 16 begins on 4 July with co-hosts Canada taking on Morocco in Houston. While Independence Day celebrations are expected to provide plenty of entertainment away from the stadium, predictions for the match itself are less straightforward.

Both nations reached this stage in dramatic fashion. Canada secured a 1-0 victory over South Africa thanks to a stoppage-time goal after the contest had appeared destined for extra time. Morocco also left it late in their meeting with the Netherlands, scoring an equaliser in the closing stages before advancing through a penalty shootout.

Those results suggest another tense knockout fixture could be in store. Canada celebrated the first World Cup knockout victory in their history, while Morocco continued to reinforce their reputation for handling high-pressure matches on the international stage.

Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
Kick-off Time: 12:00 Houston local time (UTC-5)
Venue: Houston Stadium, Houston, Texas
Venue Capacity: 72,200
Opponents: Canada vs. Morocco (Round of 16)
Canada is still searching for their first-ever victory against Morocco. Across four all-time meetings, Canada has managed only one draw and lost three times

Canada hoping adaptability proves decisive

Canada enters the last-16 tie as underdogs, with Morocco representing the strongest opponent they have faced during this tournament. Even so, the co-hosts have shown they can alter their approach depending on the challenge in front of them.

During the group phase, Canada averaged 61% possession, but that figure dropped to 42% against South Africa as they adopted a more cautious strategy. Their pressing intensity also decreased, applying high pressure to only 41.6% of their opponents’ touches, the lowest percentage they have recorded in a match at this World Cup.

That tactical flexibility could again be required against Morocco, with Canada likely to spend periods without the ball. While many underdogs would welcome the prospect of deciding the match from the penalty spot, history suggests Canada would rather avoid that outcome against this particular opponent.

Last 5 Canada matches stats

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South Africa 0 – 1 Canada

Switzerland 2 – 1 Canada

Canada 6 – 0 Qatar

Canada 1 – 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina

Canada 1 – 1 Ireland

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Morocco continue to impress on the biggest stage

Morocco arrives in Houston carrying an impressive record in major tournament knockout football. Excluding finals and third-place playoffs, they have progressed from six of their previous eight knockout matches at either the World Cup or Africa Cup of Nations, with three of those successes coming after penalty shootouts.

Their performance against the Netherlands highlighted the quality within the current squad. Morocco limited Ronald Koeman’s team to only 0.24 expected goals across 120 minutes while completing 801 accurate passes compared with the Netherlands’ 292, underlining their control throughout the contest.

Having reached the World Cup semi-finals in 2022, the Atlas Lions appear even stronger this time around. Across the current tournament, they have faced an average of just 8.3 shots and 0.8 expected goals against per match, marking the first edition of the competition in which they have conceded fewer than 10 shots and under 1.0 xGA per game.

Last 5 Morocco matches stats

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Netherlands 1 – 1 Morocco

Morocco 4 – 2 Haiti

Scotland 0 – 1 Morocco

Brazil 1 – 1 Morocco

Morocco 1 – 1 Norway

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History and key numbers favour the Atlas Lions

Canada has never defeated Morocco in four previous meetings between the nations, recording one draw and three defeats. Only Scotland and Iceland have been faced more often by Canada without registering a victory.

Morocco has also enjoyed previous success against CONCACAF opposition at the World Cup. They defeated Haiti 4-2 during this year’s group stage and overcame Canada in the final round of group matches at the 2022 tournament in Qatar.

Penalty shootouts have become another area of strength for the African side. Morocco have faced eight penalties in World Cup shootouts, with only two finding the net. Goalkeeper Yassine Bounou again demonstrated his value by producing an inventive save from Crysencio Summerville during the shootout victory over the Netherlands, further highlighting Morocco’s confidence in decisive moments.

Past H2H Results

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Canada 1 – 2 Morocco

Morocco 4 – 0 Canada

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2016/10/11

Prediction and expected outcome

Morocco heads into this round-of-16 clash as slight favourites after producing one of the most impressive defensive displays of the tournament against the Netherlands. The Atlas Lions have combined defensive solidity with growing confidence in possession, while their record in knockout football and penalty shootouts gives them an additional psychological advantage. Canada has already shown resilience and tactical flexibility, adapting their style effectively to overcome South Africa, and their ability to stay organised could make this another closely contested encounter. However, Morocco’s control in midfield, defensive discipline, and experience in high-pressure matches should gradually tilt the balance in their favour. Canada is capable of making life difficult, but Morocco appears better equipped to seize the key moments and book their place in the quarter-finals.

Prediction: Canada 0-1 Morocco

Expected outcome: A tight and disciplined knockout match in which Canada remains competitive throughout, but Morocco’s defensive organisation and greater tournament experience ultimately prove decisive. Extra time cannot be ruled out, though Morocco looks the more likely side to progress if the game is settled either in 90 minutes or via penalties.

Portugal edge Croatia in World Cup thriller to book Spain showdown

Portugal secured a place in the World Cup last 16 after Goncalo Ramos headed home in the 94th minute to seal a dramatic comeback victory over Croatia. The substitute climbed above two defenders to meet an excellent cross from Rafael Leao just when the game appeared destined for extra time.

Croatia believed they had forced an additional 30 minutes when Josko Gvardiol found the net in the 13th minute of stoppage time. However, a lengthy VAR review ruled the goal out for offside after replays showed Igor Matanovic made the slightest contact with the cross before it reached Mario Pasalic, who was in an offside position ahead of Gvardiol’s finish.

Portugal had controlled much of the opening half, but Croatia produced a stronger display after the interval and repeatedly threatened to turn the match in their favour before Ramos’ decisive contribution ended an extraordinary encounter.

Croatia fight back before Ronaldo responds

The breakthrough arrived eight minutes into the second half when Ivan Perisic punished a partial clearance from Ruben Dias by firing into the corner. Croatia thought they had doubled their advantage moments later through Matanovic, only for the effort to be disallowed because Nikola Vlasic had been caught offside in the build-up.

Portugal quickly created chances of their own. Leao struck the crossbar with a curling effort, while Cristiano Ronaldo had a delicate finish ruled out after being judged marginally offside. The equaliser eventually came from the penalty spot after VAR identified a foul on Renato Veiga during a corner, allowing Ronaldo to score his first goal in a World Cup knockout match.

Croatia continued to push forward despite conceding. Mateo Kovacic tested Diogo Costa twice in quick succession after the hydration break; Matanovic was denied in a one-on-one opportunity, and Petar Sucic also had an offside goal ruled out after finishing a precise through ball from Kovacic.

Managers’ changes shape the outcome

Roberto Martinez’s side looked comfortable in possession before the break, although many attacks ended with attempts to find Ronaldo even when other options were available. The introduction of Ramos altered Portugal’s attacking approach, giving Ronaldo greater support and helping the team create more dangerous situations.

Croatia coach Zlatko Dalic also influenced the game with a half-time substitution, replacing Ante Budimir with Matanovic. The striker immediately provided a stronger attacking presence and played an important role in the move that led to Perisic opening the scoring.

Ronaldo reacted with visible frustration when he was substituted in the 81st minute, but Portugal continued searching for a winner. Renato Veiga and Mario Pasalic both missed clear-headed opportunities before Ramos finally delivered the decisive moment deep into stoppage time.

An emotional ending awaits Portugal

The result means Portugal will meet European champions Spain in the last 16 at Dallas Stadium, Texas, on Monday, 6 July, at 20:00 BST.

The match also marked the final World Cup appearance of Luka Modric, whose midfield display stood out despite Croatia’s elimination. The experienced captain battled throughout another contest filled with dramatic moments and controversial decisions.

Portugal’s celebrations continued long after the final whistle. Although disappointed to leave the pitch earlier, Ronaldo joined his team-mates as they celebrated with supporters. Hours before the first anniversary of the death of former Portugal forward Diogo Jota, he wore his former teammate’s shirt and, with tears in his eyes, led the squad towards the travelling fans.