Norway and England will meet in a fiercely contested World Cup quarter-final in the heat and humidity of Miami on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer predicting one of the closest encounters of the last eight. England were victorious in 62.3% of 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Norway advanced in the remaining 37.7%, highlighting the narrow gap between the two sides.

Before the quarter-finals began, England was not considered the strongest favourite to reach the semi-finals. France had a 73.9% chance of progressing against Morocco, Spain stood at 69.8% against Belgium, and Argentina was given a 69.4% chance of defeating Switzerland, all ahead of the Three Lions in the simulations.

For Norway, this match represents unfamiliar territory as they prepare for their first-ever appearance in a major tournament quarter-final. Their impressive run has included a memorable victory over Brazil, the most successful nation in World Cup history, proving that they have the quality to challenge the biggest teams.

The Norwegians have produced entertaining football throughout the competition, scoring and conceding in all five of their matches so far. They have found the net 12 times while allowing nine goals, with Germany’s 1954 campaign remaining the only previous example of a team reaching the semi-finals after both scoring and conceding at least 10 goals.

Norway chasing historic achievement

Ståle Solbakken’s side has won every match except one during this World Cup, with their only defeat arriving on Matchday 3 when they rotated heavily and made 10 changes against France, who are regarded as the tournament favourites.

Norway would have finished top of Group I if they had beaten France, but Solbakken’s choice to rest key players and accept second place has worked in their favour. Since then, they have secured difficult victories against Ivory Coast and Brazil to continue their historic campaign.

The biggest threat in Norway’s attack remains Erling Haaland, who has made an immediate impact on the biggest international stage. The Manchester City striker has scored in each of his first four World Cup appearances, producing seven goals from only 18 shots.

His contribution has been decisive, with four of those goals proving to be match-winners. Only Grzegorz Lato of Poland in 1974 and Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 have scored more winning goals during a single World Cup campaign, with both players recording five.

Haaland’s incredible form has strengthened his already outstanding record for Norway. He has scored 62 goals in 54 appearances and has found the net in 14 consecutive competitive matches for his country, scoring 27 times during that run.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

England aiming to continue their tournament journey

England have experienced mixed results throughout the tournament, but their victory over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in the previous round demonstrated the qualities needed for a deep World Cup run. Their performance showed a combination of ability, resilience, and the fortune often required in knockout football.

Unlike Norway, the Three Lions are familiar with this stage of the competition. Only Brazil and Germany, both with 14 appearances, have reached more World Cup quarter-finals than England, who are preparing for their 11th appearance in the last eight.

However, their history at this stage has been difficult. England have progressed from only three of their previous 10 World Cup quarter-finals and have conceded multiple goals in seven of those matches.

A major challenge will be dealing with Haaland, but England possess their own world-class attacking options. Harry Kane remains one of the leading scorers at this tournament with six goals, one fewer than Haaland, matching the total he achieved during the 2018 World Cup.

Kane has consistently delivered in important matches, scoring 11 goals across his 12 knockout-stage appearances at major international tournaments. Meanwhile, Jude Bellingham has also made history, scoring four times in this tournament to become the highest-scoring England midfielder at a single World Cup.

Last 5 England matches stats

History, records and key battles

The upcoming quarterfinal will be the 13th meeting between Norway and England, with their most recent encounter coming in September 2014 when England won a friendly 1-0. Overall, Norway have claimed victory only twice in their previous 12 meetings and have failed to score in each of the last four clashes.

Jordan Pickford could set a new England World Cup appearance record in this match by making his 18th appearance at the tournament, surpassing Peter Shilton. However, he has struggled against Haaland in the Premier League, conceding seven goals from the 10 shots on target he has faced from the Norwegian forward.

Both teams enter the match with players capable of deciding the outcome. Haaland, Kane, and Bellingham have all produced major moments at this World Cup, but only one of them can become the figure remembered for sending their nation into the semi-finals.

England have been eliminated in five of their last six World Cup knockout matches against European opponents, including a 2-1 quarter-final defeat to France in 2022. Norway, meanwhile, have never won a World Cup match against European opposition, recording two draws and four defeats, with both of their previous knockout losses coming against Italy.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Norway and England are expected to produce one of the most evenly matched quarter-finals of the tournament, with both teams possessing elite attacking talent capable of deciding the contest. England’s greater experience at this stage of the World Cup and the quality of players such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham give them a slight advantage, while their defensive focus will be tested by the unstoppable form of Erling Haaland. Norway have already shown they can compete with the world’s best after defeating Brazil, and their attacking approach has made them one of the most entertaining sides in the competition. The match is likely to be intense and open, with England aiming to control possession and Norway looking to use their pace and direct play to exploit spaces. The decisive factor could come down to which defence handles the opposition’s main attacking threat more effectively.

Prediction: England 2-1 Norway

Expected outcome: A narrow England victory in a closely fought quarter-final, with the Three Lions’ tournament experience and depth helping them edge past a dangerous Norway side. However, Norway’s confidence, attacking firepower, and Haaland’s incredible scoring form mean they have every chance of causing another major upset. A high-scoring draw after 90 minutes would not be a surprise, but England are slightly better positioned to secure a place in the semi-finals.

Belgium and Spain will battle for a place in the World Cup semi-finals when they meet in Los Angeles on Friday. Both nations arrive in the last eight after impressive knockout victories, setting up one of the standout ties of the tournament.

Belgium finished first in Group G despite producing performances that were not always convincing. They then recovered from 2-0 down to defeat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32 before producing their strongest display yet by crushing co-host United States 4-1 in the last 16.

Spain’s route has also been impressive. Their latest victory came in dramatic fashion, with Mikel Merino striking in the 91st minute to secure a 1-0 success against Portugal and send La Roja into the quarter-finals for the sixth time.

The meeting offers Belgium the chance to continue their growing momentum, while Spain will look to extend a remarkable defensive run that has carried them deep into the competition.

Spain relying on defence and rising stars

Breaking through Spain’s back line has proved almost impossible. Their victory over Portugal delivered a sixth successive clean sheet, establishing a new World Cup record, while they have now gone 10 hours and nine minutes without conceding in the competition.

Their defensive dominance is reflected in the numbers. Spain has allowed an average expected goals against figure of just 0.30 per game, the lowest ever recorded by a team across a single World Cup finals.

At the other end, Lamine Yamal continues to make a major impact. The Barcelona winger has completed 17 successful dribbles during the tournament, with only Jamal Musiala in 2022 and Kylian Mbappé in 2018 managing more as teenagers at a World Cup since records began in 1966.

Rodri has also been central to Spain’s control of matches. His 80 line-breaking passes are the highest total by a Spanish player at a World Cup since 2010, when Gerard Piqué, Xavi, and Xabi Alonso all produced even higher numbers during Spain’s title-winning campaign.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Belgium finding their attacking rhythm

Rudi Garcia’s side have become increasingly dangerous in front of goal as the tournament has progressed. Against the United States, Charles De Ketelaere scored twice before second-half substitutes Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku completed the scoring in a commanding victory.

Although Lukaku has found the net in each of Belgium’s last three World Cup matches, all of those goals have come after he entered from the bench. Only Roger Milla scored more substitute goals at a single World Cup, with four for Cameroon in 1990, meaning Lukaku could once again begin among the replacements.

Belgium’s finishing has been one of their greatest strengths. Their shot conversion rate stands at 12.1%, their second-best return at a World Cup since 1966, surpassed only by the 15.2% recorded during the 2018 tournament in Russia.

The opportunities are also arriving regularly. Garcia’s team has averaged 21.4 attempts per match, producing 107 shots across five games, a figure only bettered by Belgium’s average of 24 attempts per contest at the 1970 World Cup.

Last 5 Belgium matches stats

History, records and a familiar rivalry

Luis de la Fuente has guided Spain through each of his six knockout matches at major tournaments. Victory over Belgium would place him alongside only Vittorio Pozzo and Vicente del Bosque as managers to win each of their first seven knockout ties against European opposition.

Belgium, however, has previous experience of denying Spain at this stage. The Red Devils eliminated La Roja on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the quarter-finals of the 1986 World Cup, although Spain won their other World Cup meeting 2-1 during the group stage four years later.

Recent encounters between the nations have largely favoured Spain. They have not lost to Belgium in their last 11 meetings in all competitions, collecting nine victories and two draws since a 2-1 defeat at the 1980 European Championship.

Their most recent clash came in September 2016, when David Silva scored twice in a 2-0 friendly victory in Brussels. Spain have also won each of the last five meetings, outscoring Belgium 13-1 across those matches.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Spain enters this quarter-final with a slight advantage thanks to their outstanding defensive record, consistent performances throughout the tournament, and impressive balance between defensive stability and attacking creativity. Luis de la Fuente’s side has yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, while players such as Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Mikel Merino have played key roles in their progress to the last eight. Belgium, however, arrives full of confidence after back-to-back knockout victories, including an emphatic win over the United States, and their attack has become increasingly dangerous with Charles De Ketelaere in fine form and Romelu Lukaku making a major impact from the bench. Rudi Garcia’s team has shown resilience and clinical finishing, meaning they are more than capable of testing Spain’s exceptional defence. The match is likely to be closely contested, with Spain expected to dominate possession while Belgium looks to exploit their efficiency in front of goal and strike on quick transitions.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Belgium

Expected outcome: A tightly fought encounter in which Spain’s defensive discipline and control of the game ultimately prove decisive, securing a place in the semi-finals. Belgium should create chances and remain competitive throughout, but Spain’s consistency at both ends of the pitch gives them a narrow edge. A draw after 90 minutes would not be an unexpected outcome, although Spain appears slightly more likely to progress.

France underlined their credentials as the leading contenders for the 2026 World Cup by defeating Morocco 2-0 in Thursday’s quarter-final, becoming the first team to secure a place in the last four.

Already world champions in 1998 and 2018, Les Bleus are now just two victories away from lifting the trophy again. With Didier Deschamps preparing to step down after this tournament, another triumph would strengthen arguments that this squad deserves to be considered among the finest France have produced.

Former France midfielder Patrick Vieira believes the current generation is approaching that level. Speaking after the win, he highlighted the remarkable depth available in attack, describing the number and quality of offensive players as extraordinary.

France’s latest success has only added to the growing belief that this side has all the ingredients needed to complete another title-winning campaign.

Attacking quality continues to set France apart

The breakthrough in Boston arrived during a devastating six-minute spell after the interval. Kylian Mbappe opened the scoring before Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele quickly doubled the advantage, leaving Morocco with no route back into the contest.

Those strikes increased France’s tournament total to 16 goals, the highest tally of any nation at this stage of the competition. Mbappe also reached eight goals despite seeing an earlier penalty saved, drawing level with Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot while remaining ahead thanks to a superior assist count.

Dembele’s fifth goal of the tournament also placed France in rare company. They became only the second team in the past 50 years to have two players score at least five goals during the same World Cup, following Brazil’s achievement in 2002.

Former Scotland forward Pat Nevin praised France’s attacking strength, describing them as the tournament’s most dangerous side and pointing out that their threat comes from several different players rather than relying on a single star.

Confidence grows ahead of a possible Spain showdown

Deschamps has guided France since 2012 and has already confirmed this World Cup will be his final tournament in charge. During his tenure, the national team lifted the 2018 World Cup, reached the 2022 final, finished runners-up at Euro 2016, and lost to Spain in the Euro 2024 semi-finals.

France entered the tournament ranked third in the world behind Argentina and Spain. Should Spain overcome Belgium in their quarter-final, they will meet France in Dallas for a place in the final.

Vieira believes France holds the advantage if that meeting takes place. While acknowledging Spain’s expected progress through the tournament, he argued that France has improved significantly compared to four years ago, whereas Spain has not reached the same level of development.

The former Arsenal captain even suggested that he cannot currently see any opponent preventing France from advancing to another World Cup final.

Strength throughout the squad and a solid defence

Before the Morocco match, former England striker Ian Wright described France as one of the clearest favourites he had seen entering a World Cup. After watching the quarter-final, he said it was difficult to identify any obvious weakness in the side.

Wright noted that Spain could create problems through their passing ability and the pace of Lamine Yamal, but he still viewed France as the stronger team because of their overall quality and individual talent. Behind the main goalscorers, Deschamps can also call upon Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki, and Jean-Philippe Mateta.

France’s defensive record has been equally impressive. They have conceded only twice in six matches, with goals allowed against Senegal and Norway, the latter having rested most of its regular starters after already reaching the knockout stage.

Roy Keane added that France still have another level to reach. While insisting they remain beatable, he argued that their combination of goalscoring forwards and players capable of producing moments of individual brilliance makes them especially dangerous, particularly once they take the lead.

Two victories remain between France and history

France’s route to the semi-finals has included wins over Senegal, Iraq, Norway, Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco, leaving them with a flawless record heading into the final stages of the tournament.

Having already secured their place in the last four, Deschamps’ side can now wait for the remaining quarter-finals to determine their next opponents while enjoying extra preparation time.

Despite the growing confidence surrounding the team, Nevin urged caution. He believes France has occasionally relaxed after establishing comfortable leads and warns that complacency could become their greatest obstacle.

Even so, with their balanced squad, prolific attack, and disciplined defence, France remain only two victories away from securing a third World Cup title.