Norway and England will meet in a fiercely contested World Cup quarter-final in the heat and humidity of Miami on Saturday, with the Opta supercomputer predicting one of the closest encounters of the last eight. England were victorious in 62.3% of 25,000 pre-match simulations, while Norway advanced in the remaining 37.7%, highlighting the narrow gap between the two sides.

Before the quarter-finals began, England was not considered the strongest favourite to reach the semi-finals. France had a 73.9% chance of progressing against Morocco, Spain stood at 69.8% against Belgium, and Argentina was given a 69.4% chance of defeating Switzerland, all ahead of the Three Lions in the simulations.

For Norway, this match represents unfamiliar territory as they prepare for their first-ever appearance in a major tournament quarter-final. Their impressive run has included a memorable victory over Brazil, the most successful nation in World Cup history, proving that they have the quality to challenge the biggest teams.

The Norwegians have produced entertaining football throughout the competition, scoring and conceding in all five of their matches so far. They have found the net 12 times while allowing nine goals, with Germany’s 1954 campaign remaining the only previous example of a team reaching the semi-finals after both scoring and conceding at least 10 goals.

Norway chasing historic achievement

Ståle Solbakken’s side has won every match except one during this World Cup, with their only defeat arriving on Matchday 3 when they rotated heavily and made 10 changes against France, who are regarded as the tournament favourites.

Norway would have finished top of Group I if they had beaten France, but Solbakken’s choice to rest key players and accept second place has worked in their favour. Since then, they have secured difficult victories against Ivory Coast and Brazil to continue their historic campaign.

The biggest threat in Norway’s attack remains Erling Haaland, who has made an immediate impact on the biggest international stage. The Manchester City striker has scored in each of his first four World Cup appearances, producing seven goals from only 18 shots.

His contribution has been decisive, with four of those goals proving to be match-winners. Only Grzegorz Lato of Poland in 1974 and Italy’s Salvatore Schillaci in 1990 have scored more winning goals during a single World Cup campaign, with both players recording five.

Haaland’s incredible form has strengthened his already outstanding record for Norway. He has scored 62 goals in 54 appearances and has found the net in 14 consecutive competitive matches for his country, scoring 27 times during that run.

Last 5 Norway matches stats

England aiming to continue their tournament journey

England have experienced mixed results throughout the tournament, but their victory over Mexico at the Estadio Azteca in the previous round demonstrated the qualities needed for a deep World Cup run. Their performance showed a combination of ability, resilience, and the fortune often required in knockout football.

Unlike Norway, the Three Lions are familiar with this stage of the competition. Only Brazil and Germany, both with 14 appearances, have reached more World Cup quarter-finals than England, who are preparing for their 11th appearance in the last eight.

However, their history at this stage has been difficult. England have progressed from only three of their previous 10 World Cup quarter-finals and have conceded multiple goals in seven of those matches.

A major challenge will be dealing with Haaland, but England possess their own world-class attacking options. Harry Kane remains one of the leading scorers at this tournament with six goals, one fewer than Haaland, matching the total he achieved during the 2018 World Cup.

Kane has consistently delivered in important matches, scoring 11 goals across his 12 knockout-stage appearances at major international tournaments. Meanwhile, Jude Bellingham has also made history, scoring four times in this tournament to become the highest-scoring England midfielder at a single World Cup.

Last 5 England matches stats

History, records and key battles

The upcoming quarterfinal will be the 13th meeting between Norway and England, with their most recent encounter coming in September 2014 when England won a friendly 1-0. Overall, Norway have claimed victory only twice in their previous 12 meetings and have failed to score in each of the last four clashes.

Jordan Pickford could set a new England World Cup appearance record in this match by making his 18th appearance at the tournament, surpassing Peter Shilton. However, he has struggled against Haaland in the Premier League, conceding seven goals from the 10 shots on target he has faced from the Norwegian forward.

Both teams enter the match with players capable of deciding the outcome. Haaland, Kane, and Bellingham have all produced major moments at this World Cup, but only one of them can become the figure remembered for sending their nation into the semi-finals.

England have been eliminated in five of their last six World Cup knockout matches against European opponents, including a 2-1 quarter-final defeat to France in 2022. Norway, meanwhile, have never won a World Cup match against European opposition, recording two draws and four defeats, with both of their previous knockout losses coming against Italy.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Norway and England are expected to produce one of the most evenly matched quarter-finals of the tournament, with both teams possessing elite attacking talent capable of deciding the contest. England’s greater experience at this stage of the World Cup and the quality of players such as Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham give them a slight advantage, while their defensive focus will be tested by the unstoppable form of Erling Haaland. Norway have already shown they can compete with the world’s best after defeating Brazil, and their attacking approach has made them one of the most entertaining sides in the competition. The match is likely to be intense and open, with England aiming to control possession and Norway looking to use their pace and direct play to exploit spaces. The decisive factor could come down to which defence handles the opposition’s main attacking threat more effectively.

Prediction: England 2-1 Norway

Expected outcome: A narrow England victory in a closely fought quarter-final, with the Three Lions’ tournament experience and depth helping them edge past a dangerous Norway side. However, Norway’s confidence, attacking firepower, and Haaland’s incredible scoring form mean they have every chance of causing another major upset. A high-scoring draw after 90 minutes would not be a surprise, but England are slightly better positioned to secure a place in the semi-finals.

Belgium and Spain will battle for a place in the World Cup semi-finals when they meet in Los Angeles on Friday. Both nations arrive in the last eight after impressive knockout victories, setting up one of the standout ties of the tournament.

Belgium finished first in Group G despite producing performances that were not always convincing. They then recovered from 2-0 down to defeat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the round of 32 before producing their strongest display yet by crushing co-host United States 4-1 in the last 16.

Spain’s route has also been impressive. Their latest victory came in dramatic fashion, with Mikel Merino striking in the 91st minute to secure a 1-0 success against Portugal and send La Roja into the quarter-finals for the sixth time.

The meeting offers Belgium the chance to continue their growing momentum, while Spain will look to extend a remarkable defensive run that has carried them deep into the competition.

Spain relying on defence and rising stars

Breaking through Spain’s back line has proved almost impossible. Their victory over Portugal delivered a sixth successive clean sheet, establishing a new World Cup record, while they have now gone 10 hours and nine minutes without conceding in the competition.

Their defensive dominance is reflected in the numbers. Spain has allowed an average expected goals against figure of just 0.30 per game, the lowest ever recorded by a team across a single World Cup finals.

At the other end, Lamine Yamal continues to make a major impact. The Barcelona winger has completed 17 successful dribbles during the tournament, with only Jamal Musiala in 2022 and Kylian Mbappé in 2018 managing more as teenagers at a World Cup since records began in 1966.

Rodri has also been central to Spain’s control of matches. His 80 line-breaking passes are the highest total by a Spanish player at a World Cup since 2010, when Gerard Piqué, Xavi, and Xabi Alonso all produced even higher numbers during Spain’s title-winning campaign.

Last 5 Spain matches stats

Belgium finding their attacking rhythm

Rudi Garcia’s side have become increasingly dangerous in front of goal as the tournament has progressed. Against the United States, Charles De Ketelaere scored twice before second-half substitutes Hans Vanaken and Romelu Lukaku completed the scoring in a commanding victory.

Although Lukaku has found the net in each of Belgium’s last three World Cup matches, all of those goals have come after he entered from the bench. Only Roger Milla scored more substitute goals at a single World Cup, with four for Cameroon in 1990, meaning Lukaku could once again begin among the replacements.

Belgium’s finishing has been one of their greatest strengths. Their shot conversion rate stands at 12.1%, their second-best return at a World Cup since 1966, surpassed only by the 15.2% recorded during the 2018 tournament in Russia.

The opportunities are also arriving regularly. Garcia’s team has averaged 21.4 attempts per match, producing 107 shots across five games, a figure only bettered by Belgium’s average of 24 attempts per contest at the 1970 World Cup.

Last 5 Belgium matches stats

History, records and a familiar rivalry

Luis de la Fuente has guided Spain through each of his six knockout matches at major tournaments. Victory over Belgium would place him alongside only Vittorio Pozzo and Vicente del Bosque as managers to win each of their first seven knockout ties against European opposition.

Belgium, however, has previous experience of denying Spain at this stage. The Red Devils eliminated La Roja on penalties after a 1-1 draw in the quarter-finals of the 1986 World Cup, although Spain won their other World Cup meeting 2-1 during the group stage four years later.

Recent encounters between the nations have largely favoured Spain. They have not lost to Belgium in their last 11 meetings in all competitions, collecting nine victories and two draws since a 2-1 defeat at the 1980 European Championship.

Their most recent clash came in September 2016, when David Silva scored twice in a 2-0 friendly victory in Brussels. Spain have also won each of the last five meetings, outscoring Belgium 13-1 across those matches.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

Spain enters this quarter-final with a slight advantage thanks to their outstanding defensive record, consistent performances throughout the tournament, and impressive balance between defensive stability and attacking creativity. Luis de la Fuente’s side has yet to concede a goal at this World Cup, while players such as Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Mikel Merino have played key roles in their progress to the last eight. Belgium, however, arrives full of confidence after back-to-back knockout victories, including an emphatic win over the United States, and their attack has become increasingly dangerous with Charles De Ketelaere in fine form and Romelu Lukaku making a major impact from the bench. Rudi Garcia’s team has shown resilience and clinical finishing, meaning they are more than capable of testing Spain’s exceptional defence. The match is likely to be closely contested, with Spain expected to dominate possession while Belgium looks to exploit their efficiency in front of goal and strike on quick transitions.

Prediction: Spain 2-1 Belgium

Expected outcome: A tightly fought encounter in which Spain’s defensive discipline and control of the game ultimately prove decisive, securing a place in the semi-finals. Belgium should create chances and remain competitive throughout, but Spain’s consistency at both ends of the pitch gives them a narrow edge. A draw after 90 minutes would not be an unexpected outcome, although Spain appears slightly more likely to progress.

France underlined their credentials as the leading contenders for the 2026 World Cup by defeating Morocco 2-0 in Thursday’s quarter-final, becoming the first team to secure a place in the last four.

Already world champions in 1998 and 2018, Les Bleus are now just two victories away from lifting the trophy again. With Didier Deschamps preparing to step down after this tournament, another triumph would strengthen arguments that this squad deserves to be considered among the finest France have produced.

Former France midfielder Patrick Vieira believes the current generation is approaching that level. Speaking after the win, he highlighted the remarkable depth available in attack, describing the number and quality of offensive players as extraordinary.

France’s latest success has only added to the growing belief that this side has all the ingredients needed to complete another title-winning campaign.

Attacking quality continues to set France apart

The breakthrough in Boston arrived during a devastating six-minute spell after the interval. Kylian Mbappe opened the scoring before Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele quickly doubled the advantage, leaving Morocco with no route back into the contest.

Those strikes increased France’s tournament total to 16 goals, the highest tally of any nation at this stage of the competition. Mbappe also reached eight goals despite seeing an earlier penalty saved, drawing level with Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot while remaining ahead thanks to a superior assist count.

Dembele’s fifth goal of the tournament also placed France in rare company. They became only the second team in the past 50 years to have two players score at least five goals during the same World Cup, following Brazil’s achievement in 2002.

Former Scotland forward Pat Nevin praised France’s attacking strength, describing them as the tournament’s most dangerous side and pointing out that their threat comes from several different players rather than relying on a single star.

Confidence grows ahead of a possible Spain showdown

Deschamps has guided France since 2012 and has already confirmed this World Cup will be his final tournament in charge. During his tenure, the national team lifted the 2018 World Cup, reached the 2022 final, finished runners-up at Euro 2016, and lost to Spain in the Euro 2024 semi-finals.

France entered the tournament ranked third in the world behind Argentina and Spain. Should Spain overcome Belgium in their quarter-final, they will meet France in Dallas for a place in the final.

Vieira believes France holds the advantage if that meeting takes place. While acknowledging Spain’s expected progress through the tournament, he argued that France has improved significantly compared to four years ago, whereas Spain has not reached the same level of development.

The former Arsenal captain even suggested that he cannot currently see any opponent preventing France from advancing to another World Cup final.

Strength throughout the squad and a solid defence

Before the Morocco match, former England striker Ian Wright described France as one of the clearest favourites he had seen entering a World Cup. After watching the quarter-final, he said it was difficult to identify any obvious weakness in the side.

Wright noted that Spain could create problems through their passing ability and the pace of Lamine Yamal, but he still viewed France as the stronger team because of their overall quality and individual talent. Behind the main goalscorers, Deschamps can also call upon Michael Olise, Bradley Barcola, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki, and Jean-Philippe Mateta.

France’s defensive record has been equally impressive. They have conceded only twice in six matches, with goals allowed against Senegal and Norway, the latter having rested most of its regular starters after already reaching the knockout stage.

Roy Keane added that France still have another level to reach. While insisting they remain beatable, he argued that their combination of goalscoring forwards and players capable of producing moments of individual brilliance makes them especially dangerous, particularly once they take the lead.

Two victories remain between France and history

France’s route to the semi-finals has included wins over Senegal, Iraq, Norway, Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco, leaving them with a flawless record heading into the final stages of the tournament.

Having already secured their place in the last four, Deschamps’ side can now wait for the remaining quarter-finals to determine their next opponents while enjoying extra preparation time.

Despite the growing confidence surrounding the team, Nevin urged caution. He believes France has occasionally relaxed after establishing comfortable leads and warns that complacency could become their greatest obstacle.

Even so, with their balanced squad, prolific attack, and disciplined defence, France remain only two victories away from securing a third World Cup title.

France will attempt to book their place in a third straight FIFA World Cup semi-final when they face Morocco at Boston Stadium on Thursday.

Didier Deschamps’ team won the competition in 2018 before finishing second four years later, losing the 2022 final to Argentina after defeating Morocco in the semi-finals. A victory this time would see Les Bleus become just the third country to reach the last four in three consecutive tournaments, matching the achievements of Germany and Brazil.

France faced their biggest challenge of the tournament so far in the last-16 stage against Paraguay. The match was tense and physical despite the South Americans avoiding any yellow cards, as they tried to disrupt France’s rhythm and unsettle their opponents.

However, Les Bleus remained composed and eventually secured a 1-0 victory, with Kylian Mbappé converting a penalty in the 70th minute. The goal moved Mbappé to seven strikes at the tournament, putting him level with Erling Haaland and just one behind Lionel Messi in the Golden Boot race.

Mbappé and Olise drive dangerous French attack

Mbappé has been one of France’s most influential players at the World Cup, adding two assists to his goal tally while also creating 12 chances for his teammates. Only Michael Olise has produced more chances for Les Bleus, while Olise also leads the team in defensive line-breaking passes with eight.

The attacking duo have played a major role in France’s impressive performances, with Olise achieving a rare statistical milestone. The midfielder became the first player since Brazil legend Zico in 1978 to record more than 10 successful dribbles, over 10 open-play chances created, and over 10 through balls during his debut World Cup campaign.

France has also benefited from the form of Bradley Barcola and Ousmane Dembélé, helping the team extend their winning run in competitive matches to seven games. Deschamps’ side have won 11 of their last 12 competitive fixtures, with their only exception being a draw.

A victory over Morocco would give France eight consecutive competitive wins, something they have not achieved since a 14-match streak between September 2002 and June 2004.

Last 5 France matches stats

Morocco rely on Díaz and Hakimi before major test

Morocco will face a difficult task trying to stop France’s attacking momentum, especially if Ismael Saibari is unavailable. The midfielder scored in every group-stage match but was forced off during the first half of the 3-0 last-16 win over Canada because of a thigh problem.

If Saibari cannot recover in time, the Atlas Lions will need Brahim Díaz and Achraf Hakimi to continue producing decisive performances. Since the beginning of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Díaz has been Morocco’s most productive player in terms of goal contributions, registering six goals and four assists across all competitions.

Hakimi has also been a key creative figure. Over the past two World Cups, no defender has created more chances than the Moroccan full-back, while his 15 chances created at this tournament represent the highest total by an African defender in a single World Cup edition since 1966.

Coach Mohamed Ouahbi also has another fitness concern in Chadi Riad, who missed the victory over Canada after suffering a knee injury during Morocco’s last-32 triumph against the Netherlands.

Last 5 Morocco matches stats

Previous meetings and key concerns ahead of clash

France may need to adjust their lineup due to several injury concerns. Manu Koné could continue in midfield if Aurélien Tchouaméni fails to recover from the groin issue that kept him out against Paraguay, while William Saliba also battled through that match despite a back problem.

Deschamps will hope Saliba is available as France look to reach a semi-final meeting with either Spain or Belgium.

The previous World Cup encounter between these nations came in the 2022 semi-finals, which was their first competitive meeting. Goals from Théo Hernandez and Randal Kolo Muani ended Morocco’s memorable run and sent France into the final.

Across all competitions, France have never lost to Morocco in their six meetings, winning three times and drawing on two occasions in the other five encounters before the World Cup semi-final.

Despite that record, France will remain cautious. Three of their six World Cup defeats this century have come against African opponents, meaning they have suffered more losses against African teams during this period than against European or South American sides combined.

Past H2H Results

Prediction and expected outcome

France enter this quarterfinal as the favourites due to their recent World Cup success, attacking depth, and remarkable consistency in major tournaments. Didier Deschamps’ team has shown the ability to handle difficult situations, and the individual brilliance of Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, and their attacking partners gives them multiple ways to threaten opponents. Morocco, however, has already demonstrated that they can compete with the world’s best, combining defensive discipline, physical strength, and dangerous creativity through players such as Brahim Díaz and Achraf Hakimi. The Atlas Lions will look to slow the tempo, remain compact, and use quick transitions to challenge France’s defence. The match is expected to be closely contested, with Morocco capable of frustrating their opponents for long periods, but France’s experience in knockout matches could prove decisive. Les Bleus are likely to have more possession and attacking opportunities, while Morocco will rely on organisation and counter-attacking moments to stay alive.

Prediction: France 2-1 Morocco

Expected outcome: A narrow France victory that sends Les Bleus into another World Cup semi-final, while Morocco’s performance further highlights their ability to compete at the highest level. France have the stronger squad on paper and greater experience in these situations, but Morocco’s resilience and recent tournament form mean a surprise result cannot be ruled out.

Lionel Messi could not hold back his emotions after another dramatic World Cup triumph, breaking down in tears as he was embraced by his Argentina teammates at Atlanta Stadium. The veteran forward had just experienced another extraordinary chapter in his international career, one that looked close to ending in disappointment before a stunning late turnaround.

The holders appeared to be heading out when Egypt built a two-goal advantage with less than 20 minutes remaining. Messi was shown on the stadium screens looking devastated as Argentina faced the possibility of a shock elimination.

At that moment, the Argentine captain’s emotions could have reflected the heartbreak suffered by Cristiano Ronaldo, who had already made an emotional World Cup exit after Portugal’s injury-time defeat by Spain.

However, Argentina refused to accept defeat. In a remarkable 14-minute spell, they scored three times to complete one of the tournament’s most dramatic comebacks and keep their title defence alive.

Messi’s magic appears when Argentina need him most

Although Messi is now 39 and no longer relies on constant movement, his influence remains enormous. He saves his energy, studies the game, and waits for the moments when his quality can change everything.

The physical side of his game may have changed, but his intelligence and ability to decide matches remain untouched. Against Egypt, he once again proved that his instincts and vision can still transform the biggest occasions.

Egypt had taken control through goals from Yasser Ibrahim and Mostafa Zico, while goalkeeper Mostafa Shobeir produced a brilliant performance to frustrate Argentina. Zico had earlier thought he had scored again, but his effort was ruled out by VAR after a foul was spotted elsewhere in the build-up.

Messi himself missed a first-half penalty, with Shobeir making the save. It was another difficult moment from the spot for the Argentine, who failed to convert two penalties during the tournament — becoming the only player, excluding shootouts, to miss two World Cup penalties in a single edition.

Argentina complete a stunning comeback

Despite their struggles, Argentina found their response when the pressure was at its highest. With only 11 minutes remaining, Messi delivered a crucial cross that allowed Cristian Romero to reduce the deficit with a header.

Just over four minutes later, the captain produced the moment only he could create, sending a powerful left-footed strike beyond Shobeir and into the net after the ball went in off the crossbar.

Egypt continued to fight until the end, but their hopes disappeared in stoppage time when Enzo Fernandez scored with a header to complete the turnaround.

The scenes after the final whistle showed the scale of the escape. Messi was lifted into the air by his teammates while Argentina’s supporters remained in the stands, celebrating with songs and drums long after the match had finished.

Messi’s brilliance creates problems for England

The victory also changed the possible route to the final for England. When Egypt were leading 2-0, there was a sense that England’s chances of reaching their first men’s World Cup final since 1966 had improved significantly.

A possible path involving Norway in the quarterfinals and Egypt, Switzerland, or Colombia in the next round had appeared. Instead, Argentina remain a potential obstacle, with Messi still standing in their way.

Former England goalkeeper Paul Robinson described the match as extraordinary, highlighting Argentina’s revival and Egypt’s frustration over refereeing decisions. He also praised Messi’s decisive contribution, pointing to his assist, his goal, and the impact of Argentina’s substitutions.

Messi’s numbers underline his influence. He became the first player in World Cup history to score in six consecutive knockout-stage matches and now has eight goals in this tournament. He has also played a direct role in 16 goals across his last nine World Cup games, with 13 goals and three assists.

Champions find a way to survive

Argentina’s latest escape was not only about Messi. Lionel Scaloni’s team showed the resilience expected from champions, combining individual quality with determination and a refusal to surrender.

The team’s ability to overcome difficult situations have remained one of their defining qualities. Even when they struggle, they continue searching for a way back into matches — and having Messi gives them an extra source of belief.

This comeback became the latest example of World Cup drama, with Argentina recovering from a two-goal deficit later than any team had ever done before in the competition without requiring extra time. According to Opta’s win probability data, Argentina had only a 0.6% chance of winning when Romero scored.

Among the many memorable moments of the tournament, this match stood out for its emotion and intensity. Messi’s tears at the end showed that, despite his experience and achievements, the World Cup still carries the same power to create unforgettable feelings.