Category Archives: Match Analytics 2026 World Cup

Match preview: England vs Croatia

The England national football team begins their World Cup campaign against the Croatia national football team at Dallas Stadium on Wednesday, aiming to launch their Group L schedule with momentum.

The Three Lions arrive among the leading contenders to reach the semi-finals, with statistical models assigning them a 29.1% probability of going that far. The fixture also marks their 17th appearance at the World Cup and an eighth consecutive participation, their longest continuous run since missing the 1994 edition in the United States.

England’s recent qualifying run underlined their dominance, as they won all eight matches while conceding no goals. Alongside Norway, they were the only UEFA side to complete qualifying with a perfect record.

Despite that control in qualification, their World Cup history since 1966 has been limited, with only two appearances beyond the quarter-final stage, finishing fourth in both 1990 and 2018.

Date: Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Kick-off Time: 15:00 Arlington local time (UTC-5)
Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Venue Capacity: 80,000
Opponents: England vs. Croatia (Group L)
The two teams are meeting for the 12th time, with England holding six wins to Croatia’s three

Tuchel era consistency and England expectations

Under Thomas Tuchel, England’s build-up to the tournament has been highly efficient, and they were one of just two European teams to win every qualifier they played. However, converting that consistency into major tournament success remains a known challenge.

Their record in World Cup openers offers some encouragement, with only one defeat in the last eight first matches (three wins and four draws). The only loss in that stretch came against Italy in 2014, when they fell 2-1.

While England’s form appears stable, the broader narrative is shaped by repeated struggles at the final stages of global tournaments. The current squad enters with expectations but also with the weight of limited deep runs in past editions.

Statistical projections still place them strongly in Group L, with a 95.6% chance of advancing from the group according to simulations.

Last 5 England matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

World Cup qualification

England 3 – 0 Costa Rica

England 1 – 0 New Zealand

England 0 – 1 Japan

England 1 – 1 Uruguay

Albania 0 – 2 England

2026/06/11

2026/06/06

2026/03/31

2026/03/27

2025/11/16

Croatia’s resilience and key figures

The Croatia national football team arrives at their seventh World Cup as established contenders rather than outsiders, having built a reputation for consistency across recent tournaments.

Over their last six appearances, they have alternated between early exits and strong finishes, reaching the podium on three occasions while also exiting at the group stage three times. They are also one of only two nations, alongside France, to reach the semi-finals at each of the last two World Cups.

Their qualification campaign was strong, featuring seven wins from eight matches and no defeats, with only a single draw against Czechia in Prague preventing a perfect record.

Group-stage form has also been steady in recent tournaments, as they remain unbeaten across their last two World Cup group phases, winning four and drawing two while conceding just twice.

Last 5 Croatia matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

World Cup qualification

Croatia 2 – 1 Slovenia

Croatia 0 – 2 Belgium

Brazil 3 – 1 Croatia

Colombia 1 – 2 Croatia

Montenegro 2 – 3 Croatia

2026/06/07

2026/06/02

2026/04/01

2026/03/27

2025/11/17

Head-to-head history and opening match outlook

The most memorable World Cup meeting between the sides came in 2018, when Croatia recovered from an early deficit to defeat England 2-1 after extra time in the semi-final. That match saw Kieran Trippier score first before goals from Ivan Perišić and Mario Mandžukić turned the tie.

Across the 21st century, the teams have met three times at major tournaments, with England winning twice at the European Championship and Croatia taking the only World Cup encounter.

Key attacking figures could shape the contest, with Harry Kane expected to feature for England in his 30th major tournament appearance, while Ivan Perišić remains a central influence for Croatia, holding a standout record for goal contributions in major international competitions.

Past H2H Results

UEFA EURO

UEFA Nations League

UEFA Nations League

England 1 – 0 Croatia

England 2 – 1 Croatia

Croatia 0 – 0 England

2021/06/13

2018/11/18

2018/10/12

Prediction and expected outcome

The England national football team enters this Group L opener as slight favourites, supported by an exceptional qualifying campaign in which they won all eight matches without conceding a goal. Their strong statistical profile and high simulation win probability reflect a side that has combined defensive discipline with efficient attacking output under Thomas Tuchel. The Croatia national football team, however, arrives with proven tournament pedigree, having reached the semi-finals at each of the last two World Cups and consistently producing strong performances in high-pressure matches. The presence of experienced leaders such as Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić ensures Croatia remains dangerous even against elite opposition. The most likely scenario is a tightly balanced contest, with England controlling more possession while Croatia stay compact and look to exploit transitions and set-piece moments.

Prediction: England 2-1 Croatia

Expected outcome: A narrow England victory in a competitive opener that underlines their strong form heading into the tournament, while Croatia’s performance keeps them firmly in contention to progress from Group L. Probability-wise, England hold the advantage, but Croatia’s experience in major tournaments means a draw or close upset cannot be ruled out.

Mbappe double sets record as France overcome Senegal at World Cup opener

The Senegal national football team began the match with a greater attacking threat and created the clearer chances in the first half, with France struggling to establish rhythm.

The France national football team offered little attacking presence before the interval, recording only a handful of touches inside the opposition penalty area and failing to properly involve their attacking line.

Nicolas Jackson came closest to breaking the deadlock when his driven effort struck the base of the post before ricocheting off the goalkeeper and drifting narrowly wide.

Just before half-time, Ismaila Sarr also missed a major opportunity, failing to guide a close-range finish on target after linking up with a delivery from Sadio Mane.

France respond after the interval

France returned from the break with noticeably more intensity, immediately pushing forward and creating early chances.

Desire Doue forced an early effort wide at the start of the second half, while both Michael Olise and Kylian Mbappé were later denied in one-on-one situations by the goalkeeper.

Senegal briefly thought they had opened the scoring through Jackson again, but the effort was ruled out for offside shortly after France began to assert themselves.

Mbappé breaks resistance and rewrites history

Kylian Mbappé eventually broke Senegal’s defensive resistance with a low finish in the second half, before later adding a spectacular long-range strike deep into added time to seal the result.

His second goal moved him to 58 international goals, placing him one ahead of former record holder Olivier Giroud as France’s leading scorer.

The result also added to his World Cup tally, bringing him level with former Germany striker Gerd Muller on 14 tournament goals.

Decisive moments and controversial decisions

Earlier in the half, France were involved in a disputed incident when contact on Mbappe inside the box led to a VAR review.

The referee initially awarded a corner, despite expectations of a penalty, before ultimately ruling that Mbappe had initiated the contact following review.

Senegal continued to threaten during this phase, but France capitalised on their momentum shift.

Bradley Barcola added a second goal for France to extend their advantage before Senegal responded through a powerful strike from 18-year-old Ibrahim Mbaye, who became the youngest African scorer in World Cup history.

Deschamps praises impact after slow start

Didier Deschamps noted that criticism of Mbappe would persist at times but highlighted his ability to decide matches with key moments rather than constant involvement.

He also emphasized Mbappé’s contribution as captain and his influence on the team’s performance beyond goal scoring.

France’s improvement after a quiet first half ultimately proved decisive as they secured victory in their opening match of the tournament in New Jersey.

Match preview: France vs Senegal

France arrives at the 2026 World Cup having finished runners-up to Argentina in Qatar and as champions in Russia in 2018, setting up a bid to join a very small group that has reached three consecutive finals. Only West Germany (1982–1990) and Brazil (1994–2002) have previously managed such a run.

Les Bleus have been one of the most consistent sides in recent history, appearing in four of the last seven World Cup finals (1998, 2006, 2018, and 2022), a total unmatched by any other nation during that span. This marks their 17th World Cup appearance and an eighth straight qualification, the longest continuous run in their history.

Their global success also includes being two-time world champions, with their 1998 triumph coming as hosts. Head coach Didier Deschamps, who captained that 1998 victory, belongs to an elite group of individuals who have lifted the trophy both as a player and a manager, alongside Mário Zagallo and Franz Beckenbauer. This match will also be his 20th World Cup game in charge, placing him just behind Helmut Schön’s record with a single national team.

Date: Tuesday, June 16, 2026
Kick-off Time: 15:00 New Jersey local time (UTC-4)
Venue: New York New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Venue Capacity: 82,500
Opponents: France vs. Senegal (Group I)
Surprisingly, the two nations have only squared off a few times in documented international football history, and Senegal has won every single one. Along with their famous 1-0 World Cup group stage shocker, they also claimed a 2-0 victory at the 1963 African Friendship Games

Mbappé and France’s modern tournament identity

Much of France’s recent World Cup identity has been shaped by Kylian Mbappé, who starred in both the 2018 and 2022 tournaments. Over those two editions, he scored 12 goals, matching Pelé’s combined World Cup tally and sitting only four behind Miroslav Klose’s all-time record.

Among those goals was a hat-trick in the 2022 final, making him only the second player ever to achieve that feat in a World Cup final after Geoff Hurst in 1966. His performances have been central to France’s deep runs, reinforcing their status as one of the tournament’s dominant modern forces.

Last 5 France matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

World Cup qualification

France 3 – 1 Northern Ireland

France 1 – 2 Côte d’Ivoire

Colombia 1 – 3 France

Brazil 1 – 2 France

Azerbaijan 1 – 3 France

2026/06/08

2026/06/04

2026/03/29

2026/03/26

2025/11/16

Senegal’s history of disruption and resilience

Senegal returned to the World Cup for a fourth appearance after campaigns in 2002, 2018, and 2022. They remain part of an ongoing African record streak, qualifying for a third consecutive tournament alongside Morocco and Tunisia.

Their debut in 2002 remains one of the competition’s most famous shocks, when they defeated defending champions France 1-0. Since that tournament, Senegal have not kept another World Cup clean sheet, conceding in each of their subsequent 11 matches.

The team qualified this time by finishing unbeaten at the top of their group ahead of DR Congo. They also experienced a turbulent year in continental competition, initially winning the Africa Cup of Nations before the title was later awarded to Morocco following a controversial penalty decision in the final.

Sadio Mané remains their key attacking figure, having scored five goals in qualification and holding the record as Senegal’s all-time top scorer. This will be his second World Cup after playing every match in 2018.

Head coach Pape Thiaw enters his first World Cup as a manager but was part of the 2002 squad that stunned France, appearing as an unused substitute and later assisting in Senegal’s famous victory over Sweden in that same tournament.

Last 5 Senegal matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

CAF AFCON

Saudi Arabia 0 – 0 Senegal

USA 3 – 2 Senegal

Senegal 3 – 1 Gambia

Senegal 2 – 0 Peru

Senegal 0 – 3 Morocco

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2026/05/31

2026/03/31

2026/03/28

2026/01/18

History and key statistics

The most significant meeting between the two sides came at the 2002 World Cup, when Senegal produced a famous 1-0 victory over France in their tournament opener. Papa Bouba Diop scored the decisive goal in Seoul, and the result set the tone for a dramatic debut campaign for Senegal, who went on to reach the quarter-finals. For France, who entered the tournament as defending champions, the defeat marked the beginning of a disappointing run that ended with them exiting the group stage with just one point.

Since that historic meeting, Senegal have not kept another World Cup clean sheet, conceding in each of their 11 matches played at the tournament. France’s recent record against African opposition has also been mixed, with three defeats in their last four World Cup group-stage matches against African teams, the exception being a 2-0 win over Togo in 2006.

Past H2H Results

FIFA World Cup

France 0 – 1 Senegal

2002/05/31

Prediction and expected outcome

France enter this opening World Cup clash as clear favourites thanks to their elite tournament pedigree, recent consistency at the highest level, and a squad built around proven match-winners on the biggest stage. Didier Deschamps’ side have reached four of the last seven World Cup finals and arrive with the experience of being both reigning champions (2018) and recent runners-up (2022), underlining their ability to deliver deep tournament runs. With Kylian Mbappé continuing to define their attacking threat after scoring 12 goals across the last two World Cups, France possess the cutting edge and big-game experience to control the key moments.

Senegal, however, is exactly the type of opponent capable of making this uncomfortable. Their historic 1-0 win over France in 2002 remains one of the tournament’s most famous shocks, and their current team arrives unbeaten in qualifying and boosted by strong collective organisation. Ranked 16th in the world, they have shown they can compete with elite opposition, while Sadio Mané provides a decisive attacking focal point capable of punishing any defensive lapse. Their resilience, athleticism, and counter-attacking threat mean they are unlikely to be overwhelmed early.

The most likely scenario is a controlled but competitive match, with France expected to dominate possession and territorial play, while Senegal looks to stay compact, frustrate rhythm, and break forward quickly when opportunities appear. Over time, France’s depth of quality and experience in managing World Cup matches should allow them to create clearer chances, especially through Mbappé and their supporting attackers.

Prediction: France 2-1 Senegal

Expected outcome: A hard-fought French victory where Senegal remain competitive for long spells but ultimately fall short as France’s superior attacking quality and tournament experience prove decisive. France is a strong favourites on probability models, but Senegal’s history of causing upsets at World Cups ensures this remains a potentially tricky opener rather than a routine win.

Own goal costs Egypt its first World Cup win as Belgium recovers in Seattle

Egypt took the lead in the 21st minute when Emam Ashour unleashed a 20-yard effort that flew into the bottom corner beyond Thibaut Courtois. The goal came during a confident spell that saw the African side start brightly in their Group G opener in Seattle.

Backed by an energetic crowd on the United States’ west coast, Egypt looked determined to secure their first-ever World Cup victory, having gone eight matches without a win since their debut in 1934. The momentum continued as they pushed for a second goal before the break.

Mostafa Zico came close to extending the advantage when his driven attempt across goal was pushed away by Courtois. Mohamed Salah, captaining the side on his 34th birthday, also tested the Belgian keeper after the restart with a header that was comfortably stopped, while Ashour failed to convert the rebound.

Belgium respond after second-half pressure shift

Belgium gradually grew into the contest, with Kevin De Bruyne striking the outside of the post from a free-kick as they began to assert control. The pressure eventually told after changes from manager Rudi Garcia altered the tempo of the game.

Romelu Lukaku was introduced in the 66th minute, despite limited minutes during the 2025–26 season, and his presence immediately influenced the sequence that followed. Within moments of his arrival, Belgium found a route back into the match.

A low delivery from Thomas Meunier was diverted into his own net by Egyptian defender Mohamed Hany under pressure, with Lukaku nearby as the situation unfolded.

Own goal denies historic breakthrough

The equaliser meant Egypt were again denied a first World Cup win, extending a long wait that stretches across eight matches since their tournament debut. The result also marked only the third time they have avoided defeat at the competition.

Despite leading for much of the contest, Egypt were forced into a tense final phase as Belgium pushed forward in search of a winner. However, the North African side managed to withstand the pressure and hold on for a draw.

Late pressure and missed chances decide the contest

In the closing stages, Belgium continued to threaten but could not complete the turnaround, while Egypt focused on preserving a point. Earlier dominance had slipped away as the match tightened after the break.

The result reflected a game defined by missed opportunities and decisive moments at both ends, with Egypt unable to capitalise on their first-half superiority and Belgium rescued by a fortunate deflection in the second period.

Match preview: Belgium vs Egypt

Belgium head into their FIFA World Cup Group G opener against Egypt in Seattle on Monday unbeaten in 13 matches, following a 5-0 win over Tunisia in Brussels in which five different players scored.

Since taking charge in January 2025, coach Rudi Garcia has overseen a notable turnaround after losing his first match in charge, later helping the team avoid relegation from UEFA Nations League A.

He then guided Belgium through an unbeaten World Cup qualifying campaign, finishing top of their group with 29 goals scored, a tally only Norway surpassed in Europe with 37.

Date: Monday, June 15, 2026
Kick-off Time: 17:00 Seattle local time (UTC-7)
Venue: Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington
Venue Capacity: 68,740
Opponents: Belgium vs. Egypt (Group G)
Despite playing four times in international friendlies previously, this marks the very first time Belgium and Egypt are facing off in an official FIFA World Cup match

Key attacking roles and injury concerns

Manchester City winger Jérémy Doku has played a central role in Belgium’s attack, contributing to nearly a quarter of their qualifying goals with five scored and two assists, and also registering two assists against Tunisia.

His influence is expected to be important again, especially as Romelu Lukaku has been described as “out of shape” after a season disrupted by recurring muscular injuries and long spells on the sidelines.

Despite that, Lukaku remains Belgium’s all-time leading goalscorer and is expected to be motivated at what could be one of his final major tournaments with the national side’s experienced core.

Last 5 Belgium matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

World Cup qualification

Belgium 5 – 0 Tunisia

Croatia 0 – 2 Belgium

Mexico 1 – 1 Belgium

USA 2 – 5 Belgium

Belgium 7 – 0 Liechtenstein

2026/06/06

2026/06/02

2026/04/01

2026/03/28

2025/11/18

Egypt’s hopes built around Salah

Mohamed Salah may enter the tournament eager to respond after a difficult final season with Liverpool, where his 14 goal involvements in the league marked his lowest return since the 2014-15 campaign split between Chelsea and Fiorentina.

He will celebrate his 34th birthday on the day of the match and hopes to lead Egypt to their first-ever World Cup victory.

Salah was directly involved in 60% of Egypt’s goals during qualifying, scoring nine and assisting three in an unbeaten campaign, while head coach Hossam Hassan is expected to adopt a cautious approach, allowing both Salah and Omar Marmoush attacking freedom.

Egypt comes into the tournament without injury concerns after a 1-0 win over Russia and a 2-1 loss to Brazil in warm-up matches.

Last 5 Egypt matches stats

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

CAF AFCON

Brazil 2 – 1 Egypt

Egypt 1 – 0 Russia

Spain 0 – 0 Egypt

Saudi Arabia 0 – 4 Egypt

Egypt 0 – 0 Nigeria

2026/06/07

2026/05/28

2026/03/31

2026/03/27

2026/01/17

History between both sides and key statistics

This will be the first World Cup meeting between Belgium and Egypt, although they have faced each other four times in friendlies, with Egypt winning three of those matches compared to Belgium’s one.

Their most recent encounter came in November 2022 in Kuwait City, where Egypt won 2-1 thanks to goals from Mostafa Mohamed and Trezeguet.

Belgium has lost only once in five World Cup matches against African teams (W3 D1), with that defeat coming against Morocco in 2022.

Goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is set to make his 16th World Cup appearance, drawing level with Jan Ceulemans and sitting just behind Enzo Scifo’s national record of 17.

Past H2H Results

International friendlies

International friendlies

International friendlies

Belgium 1 – 2 Egypt

Belgium 3 – 0 Egypt

Egypt 4 – 0 Belgium

2022/11/18

2018/06/06

2005/02/09

Prediction and expected outcome

Belgium enter this World Cup Group G opener as clear favourites thanks to their strong recent form, long unbeaten run, and impressive attacking output during qualification. Rudi Garcia’s side have gone 13 matches without defeat, topped their qualifying group with 29 goals scored, and recently produced a 5-0 win over Tunisia with multiple players contributing on the scoresheet, underlining their depth and offensive variety.

Egypt, however, arrive with a dangerous edge built around Mohamed Salah, who remains central to everything they do in attack. Despite a mixed club campaign, he was directly involved in 60% of Egypt’s goals in qualifying and will be motivated to deliver a landmark result on his birthday. With Salah supported by players like Omar Marmoush, Egypt have enough threat in transition to punish any defensive lapses.

The most likely scenario is a controlled Belgian performance in terms of possession and territory, with Egypt sitting deeper and relying on counter-attacks to stay competitive. Belgium’s creativity through wide areas, especially Jeremy Doku, is expected to stretch Egypt’s defensive structure, but the match may remain tight if Egypt stay organised and disciplined for long periods.

Prediction: Belgium 2-1 Egypt

Expected outcome: A narrow Belgian victory where their superior squad depth and attacking consistency ultimately prove decisive, but not without resistance from Egypt. The Pharaohs are likely to remain competitive throughout, with Salah’s influence keeping them within reach, even if Belgium’s quality in the final third edges the result in their favour.